My Opinions

The warning is timely, at a time when twenty-five countries of the eurozone summit meeting in preparing to sign a pact of brass on the return to balance their public accounts. The Netherlands, paragon of virtue budget, had to acknowledge on Thursday that public finances are sinking into the red and they can not fulfill their promise of recovery, just like Spain or Greece. The failure of the closest ally of Germany in terms of orthodoxy serves to illustrate the damage of a recession is spreading in Europe since the winter. On the first day of a summit officially devoted to research of new growth, it also confirms that this new fever deficits goes far beyond the shores of the Mediterranean.

At the Hague, the official statistics institute has sharply revised down its forecast for the next four years, a backlash slowdown in exports, a drop in traffic in Rotterdam and a housing market collapse . The Néeerlandais GDP would shrink by 0.75% in 2012 and the government deficit to rise to 4.5% mechanically. It was only in 2015 as best they could fulfill their commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit with the European standard of 3%.

The blow is severe for the minority government of Mark Rutte who must save at least € 9 billion to return to the nails. "A country that has done much to others the lesson needs to be, in time, the first to submit to collective discipline, loose a senior European official pay day loans. It's the least we can expect. " On Monday, the Dutch coalition parties will meet to negotiate a new coalition agreement, under the sign of austerity and double-locked. The far-right leader Geert Wilders, who supports the office without participating, suggests that the fate of the team Rutte is hanging by a thread in parliament.

It is also a cold shower for twenty-five heads of state and government who will initial on Friday morning, the fiscal covenant intended by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy. This treaty, completed in a record time of 80 days, requires them to return to equilibrium, under the threat of financial sanctions. The woes of Spain, whose Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the explosion of the deficit to 8.5% of GDP in 2011, had led to doubts about the holding of this objective. Behind the scenes dealings are already beginning to circumvent the collective discipline, at a time when the counters growth fall below zero. Mariano Rajoy arrived yesterday in Brussels with the intention to overcome, at least in 2012, the deficit limit imposed by the euro area. José Manuel Barroso, the head of the EU executive, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the Eurogroup, make it known publicly that there is no question of giving. The question is whether this line can hold when the list gets longer capitals hit by the recession.

The price of gas and electricity for low incomes will fall in Reunion, and those of 40 essential commodities will be frozen at least from March 1 through the efforts of local communities, said Friday the prefect, Michel Lalande. A series of measures taken after a round table of five thirty gathering around him the chairmen of local councils, chambers, representatives of consumer associations, oil companies and professional drivers guaranteed payday loans. All participants in the roundtable have finally launched a "solemn appeal" to calm the population.

Remained elusive to date on the possible assistance that could contribute to Europe to solve its debt crisis, China is beginning to establish conditions.

Thursday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has strongly condemned the recent anti-dumping investigations launched by the EU against him, suggesting that their maintenance could jeopardize any assistance from China to the Old World.

"While the global economy is still not out of the financial crisis, many European countries are stuck in the sovereign debt crisis, all countries should adopt a cooperative, open and tolerant to work through this crisis' , he said on his website, adding: "The European anti-subsidy investigation to the outside world sends the wrong signal that protectionist (..) undermines Sino-European joint efforts to address the crisis."

The European Union opened an anti-subsidy investigation on some organic coated steel from China, coupled with an anti-dumping investigation launched last December 21 on imports of these products. Procedures triggered by a complaint by Eurofer, which represents over 70% of European manufacturers of the products concerned. According to the website of the European Commission, these producers believe that their Chinese competitors receive subsidies in the form of tax exemptions and purchases made by the Chinese government over the market price.

Beijing claims its status of "market economy"

"The Chinese professionals in the industry have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the investigations that violate WTO rules," said in response that the Chinese Ministry states that it "will follow with great attention the development of this case."

At the 14th Sino-EU summit held last week in Beijing, Premier Wen Jiabao had stated its support for European integration and the euro while promising to be more involved to find a solution to the debt crisis. "China will continue to invest in government bonds, while ensuring their safety, liquidity and the appreciation of their value," had assured, meanwhile, the president of the Chinese central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, before defending his country would "become more involved in finding a solution to the debt crisis in Europe through various channels such as the IMF, the European Financial Stability Fund and the European Stability Mechanism."

At that time, Beijing had reissued the hope that the EU recognizes its status of "market economy", without waiting for 2016, when this status will be granted under the accession agreement China to the WTO. 

"When a country is not under market economy status, the EU can impose antidumping duties very high with very little evidence," said Patrick Messerlin, director of the Groupe d'Economie Mondiale (GEM).

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After a slump, exports of French military hardware recovered strongly in 2011. "The total is expected to reach 6.5 billion euros, which allows France to maintain its position as the fourth largest exporter of arms," ​​said Wednesday Laurent Collet-Billon, general delegate to the Armaments (DGA).

The sale of two buildings Projection and Command (BPC) Mistral class in Russia, the contract for upgrading the Mirage 2000 in India or the sale of large 4 × 4 Aravis protected in Saudi Arabia accelerated to 27% export activity compared to 2010. Lack of large contracts, it had fallen to 5.1 billion euros last year.

Laurent Collet-Billon notes that "French exports are made up two-thirds of small contracts which constitute a solid base." More sophisticated, large contracts are part of longer timeframes. They are subject to deadlines and time consuming to negotiate very detailed, especially as the client country is no longer content to "sign a check," but hopes to capture some of the expertise of the selling country via transfer technology.

"Performance" of France is good news for 100,000 jobs, half of which direct exports that depend on contracts. But it is still far from its target of 10 billion euros in exports, a level considered ideal by the CEO because it would be equivalent in value to the national command.

Franco-British axis

In 2011, France spent 10.7 billion euros in R & D and equipment purchases for the armed forces such as NH 4 90 transport helicopters, six Tiger combat gear, more than a hundred armored (VBCI) or 4000 devices to the Felin infantry fast cash loans.

In terms of budget, continuity is crucial. We must continue its effort of R & D to prepare "defense systems" wars of the future. Among the sites are open marine robotics, cyber warfare or UAVs (unmanned aircraft). Because of defense budgets on, part of the answer lies in "pragmatic cooperation" with our European neighbors, said the DGA.

This is why France and Britain, the first two European military powers, have decided to advance by creating a UAV industry – the small tactical UAV through a viewing device and an unmanned fighter (read our editions of 17 and 18 February). This, based on their respective champions – Dassault Aviation and BAE Systems – bilaterally. With the prospect later to make the two engines of future European programs.

The French army should be equipped, like its British counterpart, Watchkeeper tactical UAV, built by Thales UK, by 2013. "In a few weeks, the DGA will ask BAE and Dassault to launch the assessment phase of the future UAV observation Male," said Laurent Collet-Billon, indicating having received "an offer last week from Dassault" about the future of UAV platform through Israeli (Heron TP).

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The euro countries should provide in the night the green light to a massive assistance to Athens, to save him once again the bankruptcy assistance, debt forgiveness and contributions combined, Greece will cost more than € 350 billion in twenty months just to the EU, banks and international institutions. As much as the debt that the country continues to grow as Sisyphus his rock.

Assistance discussed Monday in Brussels, amounting to EUR 130 billion, shows more modest ambitions than the first 110 billion plan presented in May 2010 as a panacea. The 2012 version covers the next eight years, but it is far from solving all maturities by then. It does not fill a growing distrust between Greece, is said bled dry, and creditors like Germany believe that it can never do enough.

Demand concessions maximum

In the calendar, the distress of Athens as important as the progress of complex financial dealings with governments, private banks, the IMF and the ECB. Under penalty of default, the government must realize Papademos an agreement with its creditors before March 20, deadline by which 14.5 billion of government bonds mature. "We must conclude today, because time is running out," said President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker.

Faced with the enormity of the amounts, the sense of urgency is far from being shared in the monetary area. North, capitals such as Berlin, The Hague and Helsinki took advantage of last hours to demand concessions maximum of Athens by suggesting, as the German Wolfgang Schäuble, a Greek bankruptcy would be manageable after all.

To the south, others are alarmed instead of a possible contagion of bankruptcies in Portugal, Spain and even Italy, in the midst of a recession. "We have now all the elements for an agreement," insisted Monday Baroin. Europeans are close to finalizing, but a diplomat added, "they still have to lift the heaviest of ambiguities" in that price, Greece should it stay or not in the euro?

A surrender of sovereignty single

The agreement on the table focused on two issues: the erasure of unprecedented € 100 billion of private debt, agreed in advance by the banks, which must be added to the bailout of at least 130 billion euros financed by creditors. It is on this second effort, called on governments and international institutions, that the real uncertainties remain to be overcome.

Despite the anger of the street, the government is preparing to slash Papademos 3.3 billion in additional government envelopes, like Medicare, minimum wage and defense. "The Greek people have made considerable efforts, it is now for others to do the same," assured his arrival a Christine Lagarde yet mindful of the IMF funds.

Politically, Athens refuses any loud and European tutelage and just show the vitriolic exchanges with Berlin. But in practice, Greece seemed about to make a single surrender of sovereignty: the establishment of a budget account blocked, intended to guarantee the repayment of debt and interest payments. The mechanism, suggested as a sign of confidence by Berlin and Paris, is to serve the foreign creditors before committing a penny of national public expenditure.

Even if Athens managed to get unparalleled support that night, he will probably remain the Greeks the bitter taste of a potion imposed from outside

. Aid to Greece (public and private since May 2010)

110 billion euros. Amount of the first rescue plan EU-IMF.

€ 130 billion. Amount of the second rescue plan EU-IMF.

100 billion euros. Amount of Greek debt erased by the private sector.

12 billion euros. Realized capital gains on government debt which should give the ECB the benefit of Greece.

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Organic products seem immunized against the crisis. Last year, sales were nearly $ 4 billion euros, an increase of at least 10%, as estimated by the Bio Agency. A sacred performance. Over the same period, sales of consumer products (food and hygiene products) have indeed stagnated in volume, and increased by only 3% in value.

Despite prices 20% to 50% higher, organic products, which represent less than 2% of the food market, continue to attract consumers. However, they are less likely to try the bio. In 2011, 40% of French reported consuming at least once a month for organic products, when they were 43% in 2010 and 46% in 2009, according to a survey by the CSA institute. "In a crisis, the curiosity of consumers is less, recognizes Elizabeth Mercier, Director of the Agency Bio. But market growth in 2008, the year of crisis, was 25% and 19% by volume. " In contrast, 18% of those who consume at least one organic product a week they intend to increase their intake this year. "This allows us to expect a further growth of organic products in 2012," said Elisabeth Mercier.

More visibility on the shelf

"The potential of new consumer stays there, half the French having no problem purchasing power," said Didier Perreol, group president Ekibio (Priméal, Bisson, My life without gluten?), Which states that Organic consumers are mostly from the wealthier classes.

"The market continues to grow as a supply effect contributes mechanically to increased purchases," says Isabelle Senand, author of a study on the bio for Xerfi instant payday loan. This is the result of the number of openings specialized brands (Naturalia Biocoop, La Vie Claire?), Pioneer of organic and enlargement of the assortment in supermarkets and hypermarkets. Today, 10% of milk sales are conducted in organic section, over 15% of sales? Eggs but only 6% of sales of fruits and vegetables. Last year, innovations in the organic section have increased among the national brands, ham Fleury Michon Pom'Potes Materne to Mont Blanc.

"The distributors have established themselves in this market with their brands and national brands, explains Isabelle Senand. All signs now have their own organic brand, which is largely the democratization of the market. "

The price gap has in fact reduced in grocery, fruit and vegetables or dairy products. "In five years, our prices are down 15% due to higher volumes, which allowed us to increase productivity," says Daniel Tirat, CEO of two cows, the brand of organic yogurt from Danone, the second mark market.

In three years, the market for organic fresh dairy products has doubled to 100 million euros. "We are in a logical recruitment of consumers, two thirds of our buyers who have never eaten organic yogurt, adds Daniel Tirat, which will test next month at Monoprix sales of butter and cream The two cows. We need the bio is even more visible rays. "

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Under the fiscal 2011, TF1 achieved stable sales to 2.62 billion euros compared to 2010. However, the chain headed by Nonce Paolini seen advertising revenues fall by 2.9% to 1.5 billion euros. What encouraged the group to a conservative forecast for 2012.

However, the advertising revenue of the group TF1 is up 1.6% to 1.821 billion. As for the M6, this increase is due to activities including digital and video advertising on the Internet and the integration of TMC and NT1.

A trend found in the income grouped under the activity Broadcasting France (2.1 billion euros, up 1.2%) and includes the subsidiaries e-TF1, TF1 Enterprises and pole production doped in 2011, by the success of the movie "Untouchables".

The turnover "other activities" increases, meanwhile, from 4% to 1.115 billion euros. Growth on redemption of TMC, NT1 and share in Metro France.

Strict financial orthodoxy

Lack of blockbusters, and because of the collapse of the video market, the subsidiary rights audiovisual saw its sales fall by 27.4 to 115.5 million euros No teletrak payday loan.

For its part, the group's net profit down 20% to 183 million euros. The group recalls that excluding exceptional items of 82.8 million positive net earnings were boosted in 2010, the 2011 would print up 25%. Operating profit increased by 22.8% to its 282.9 million euros.  

The first private television group, which combines still 23.7% audience share, has improved its operating profitability as the latter increased from 8.8% in 2010 to 10.8% improvement in 2011.Une due to the decreasing cost of the grid's flagship TF1 who returned from 950 to 905 million euros.

For the years 2012/2013, TF1 has also decided to revise downwards the forecasts of the latter to € 930 million against a forecast 2011/2012 to 950 million. In fact, the subsidiary of Martin Bouygues is clearly the choice of strict financial orthodoxy.

In exchange, these ads are welcome. The title wins more than 7%.

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From our special correspondent in Toulon

Spirit of Toulon, are you there? Pending the arrival of the president, we could see a backdrop composed of a large red white blue rectangle surrounded by two rings of gold stars, the emblem of Europe. One way to summarize the message of the President Thursday night: a France supreme in all European refounded. Thursday, Nicolas Sarkozy has said little about the rebuilding of capitalism, the first theme of the speech of Toulon in 2008. This is the rebuilding of Europe was in the spotlight. The head of state wanted to show that France will not return "control of his destiny" after the shock of the crisis, as the fight against deficits and European solidarity.

To reconnect with "trust" and to dispel the "fear", look "face the truth," Sarkozy warned payday loan lenders. This truth, he said, is that of a "new cycle".He reiterated the importance of principles such as non-replacement of an officer and two indicated that they could no longer keep "the same organization of our social protection", or the same "system of work sharing." He preferred to announce a "social summit" in January on these topics.

Allusions to presidential

Another word carefully avoided, that of "federalism." The purpose of the speech was well Toulon to reaffirm the principle of national sovereignty by avoiding the risk of isolation. "We will not control our destiny alone," hammered Nicolas Sarkozy.

Gran Via, Saturday afternoon, thousands of Madrid overflowing sidewalks to rob the shops in the center. Plaza Santa Ana customers compete tables for a drink and some tapas … According to a recent survey, 68% of Spaniards say they are happy despite the economic depression. The Spanish crisis is a strange crisis. Five million unemployed, a growing half-mast and a debt to the edge of the alert levels, but the fiesta continues. On the surface, anyway.

The costs of the crisis, in fact, are unevenly distributed. On the one hand, those who retain their jobs. Possibly concerned about the situation, their objective situation has changed little since the crisis began, three years ago. On the other, 21.5% of those unemployed, whose number is increasing. Poorly defended, forgotten unions, their suffering is silent.As to the exhaustion of benefits, the first victims of the crisis, however, sinking slowly into exclusion.

Withdrawal into the family

Alejandro lives under the threat of expulsion. He, his brother and his mother, he unwittingly embarked in his galley. 28 years old, he had offered to help a colleague get a home loan. He signed his mother too, and they vouched. Before the crisis, Alejandro had a job as an electrician, he believed that his salary was only threatened, if by chance his friend forgot to pay a bill. When the colleague left no forwarding address, the bank asked his due: 168,000 euros of debt. "Due immediately," says the letter from the bailiff. Now unemployed, Alejandro key 340 euros compensation unemployment. His brother does not work either. Only his mother still affects a salary: 1200 euros.

Michel Madelain, CEO of Moody's Investor Services.