My Opinions

The crisis will not spare the textile and clothing, nor in 2011 nor in 2012, according to latest figures released yesterday by the French Institute of Fashion (IFM). Falling from 11.7% in France in the third quarter, sales of clothing have declined 2.1% in 2011, the fourth consecutive year of decline. Much worse than in 2010 (when sales had dropped by only 0.6%), the trend is not likely to reverse in 2012: against the background of a prolonged economic slowdown, the IFM provides a fallback of 1.8%.

Consumption at half-mast and a surge in raw materials (cotton, wool, oil …) continue to affect the sector. "Rising costs could not be passed in part to the customer on prices because demand is down," said Gildas Minvielle, head of the Economic Observatory of the IFM.Consumption can not grow, says he, "when we have an economy that is growing at quite low. It takes 2 or 3% of overall growth in consumption "to expect to see a" dynamic "re-emerge in this sector, he added. It is far less than 1% growth.

The decline in sales has not yet been felt on the production of the textile industry, stable since 2009. She even posted a sales increase of 8% in late August, thanks to strong exports, supported by Asia. But industrial activity may be overtaken by the crisis, "in case of continued deterioration seen since the summer," warns the IFM.

Consumer bipolar

To resist, distributors sharpen their weapons, and strategic marketing. Much attention is given to new behaviors and consumer demands.

No teletrack payday loans offer customers extreme speed in granting, approving and remitting cash advances to cater for any kind of unforeseen financial crisis.

Fight against poverty, access to clean water, education, health … Target the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa while engaging more in North Africa. These are the priorities declined by the French development, according to the 2011 AFD Ifop barometer, conducted in July, against a background of "Arab spring". They are 63% to support the continuation of official development assistance (ODA), despite the crisis and the context of budget restrictions. 77% of them even consider that France should have its own policy in Europe.

Tax on financial transactions

Given that France is the third largest contributor to global. "ODA accounts for 10 billion euros, or nearly 10% of global ODA, while France weighs 5% of global GDP.And the 2012 budget will not be affected by lower public spending, "said Minister of Cooperation Henri de Raincourt. Welcoming the outcome of the investigation that "incites to put development at the heart of the international agenda," the minister said that the G20 Development to be held next Friday in Paris will be a first in this proceeding with three priorities: food security, infrastructure and innovative financing.

Paris has the support of Brazil and several European partners to push the proposed tax on financial transactions, despite the opposition displayed the Anglo-Saxon countries, the United States in mind. "It will take these countries explain to their publics at the same time they lower their ODA they refuse to find new financing.This is an ethical issue, "criticizes the French minister.

If aid is important to the French, they are only 55% find it effective. They are even more severe in the result on the reduction of poverty, the fight against global warming and support for economic growth. Overall 60% believe the French budget enough, young people, however, require a greater commitment.

Respondents also believe that aid should rely more on local actors: communities, civil society organizations, entrepreneurs and NGOs …. The transfer of skills and know-how is considered very important to avoid over-reliance of the States for assistance. Finally, like other years, they want more information on funded projects, their progress and results.

To save Greece from bankruptcy, the banks will have to put their hands in the pocket, and it more than expected. This was recognized by the French Ministry of Finance on Thursday. Creditor institutions of the country in trouble will "probably" erase more debt than originally agreed. European leaders are currently "working" on the issue, said Bercy.

On 21 July, the euro area has decided to ask the banks to accept a debt relief of up to 21% of their funds invested in government debt. This participation is about 50 billion euros, in addition to using the new euro 109 billion. This was torn by Berlin, while Paris was reluctant, wanting to protect its banking system.

Since the announcement, Greece has sunk even further into crisis, with growth forecast and worse than expected public deficit targets not being met. Several diplomatic sources said in recent days that European leaders are now working on discounts of around 30% to 50% on Greek debt. However, a source told Reuters in Brussels, "it is still very open. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now, and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. "

"Window" for banks

To prevent European banks from sinking while erasing part of the slate of Greece, European leaders are studying at the same time the recapitalization of the sector savings account payday advance.Bercy said Thursday that European states will open a "window" for banks would be unable to recapitalize on their own or directly in the markets. France would have wanted to use it for the European Financial Stability, established to help countries in trouble. But Germany is opposed, wanting to limit its use to countries under international infusion (Greece, Portugal, Ireland).

"French banks have no liquidity problems or solvency", held a state Department of Finance. European financial institutions that need to be recapitalized, said Bercy, are "those who failed the stress tests" released in early summer and those who have succeeded just in time. Eight banks have failed and 16 passed the examination of accuracy.Dexia, which is now being dismembered, had passed between the cracks.

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The nightmare of 2008 takes shape in the early autumn. In great difficulty, the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia has lost a third of its value on the stock market Tuesday morning amid rumors injection of public money. Since the beginning of August, the European banks, particularly French, are attacked by the markets.

Investors blame them for buying too many Greek debt. Their actions melt like snow in the sun and their Asian or American counterparts do not lend them more than with suspicion. Result, some politicians in the euro area considering state aid for out of the rut. The last time an institution, Lehman Brothers, was abandoned to its fate in 2008, this resulted in the worst financial crisis since 1929.But why, every time they approach the precipice, the banks are they rescued by the States? Decryption.

What is the importance of banks in the economy?

In Europe, the sector produces about 10% of the wealth of the country. But its importance goes well beyond the turnover. Banks play an intermediary role essential. "They manage the savings of those who are most and assign credit to those who request it," says Sofiane Aboura, co-head of investment banking master and market the University of Paris Dauphine.

"The word bank includes a number of activities," said Michel Baroni, professor at ESSEC. "In France in particular, they carry almost all areas of finance: savings management, payment system via current accounts, credit to individuals and businesses, say market activities (trading, etc guaranteed fast personal loans.)..It says the model of universal banking. "Reflecting these activities, the assets of the banking sector in France are more than 3.3 times the gross domestic product (GDP), that is to say, the wealth produced by the country in one year. In Germany the figure is two and a half times GDP, and the Netherlands, more than four times.

Why save them?

"If a major bank collapses, the economy collapses," Assen Scialom * Laurence, Professor of Economics at Paris X Nanterre.All institutions, however, represent the same systemic risk, and do not necessarily require to be saved, says the economist: "What is it? What are its interconnections, therefore the risk of contagion, with the rest of the economy and the rest of the world? Can it be replaced in its business by a competitor? We must ask these questions before acting. "Still, ultimately, a bank, however small it may be, can not die without causing catastrophe if the situation is calm. "Today the market is destabilized and a bankruptcy would not affect normal times can be devastating," warns Laurence Scialom.

How to reduce the bill, in cases of salvage?

"For a state to help a troubled bank is less expensive than the laissez-faire

The former headquarters of Lehman Brothers in New York. Photo Credit: Mark Lennihan / Associated Press

She has it all in these turbulent times. The piece that sells for 200 euros on Monday, the Monnaie de Paris is solid gold. A metal sought by individuals particularly since the financial turmoil. The 50,000 copies (999 per thousand of gold) are sold on the website of the Paris Mint www.monnaiedeparis.fr at its headquarters in Paris and in 1000 post offices.

For collectors, it is a copy of most in the series of Euro regions (silver coins with a face containing the names of 27 French regions). "This piece represents a safe investment, since it still be worth at least face value," it says to the Monnaie de Paris. An argument that has more weight than other investments are sad mine.

When she threw parts of the regions 10 euros in cash (one model per region), the Monnaie de Paris had found at his door in the morning thousands of individuals. And the quota available on the Internet had passed in less than a morning on a one-piece per second. Fans will do so many this time? Gold is the ultimate safe haven, but today it is no longer 10, but 200 euros to be paid to pocket a new gold coin. Verdict noon.

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Convince donors of failing markets. That's what worked on Sunday, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, bringing together an extraordinary Council of Ministers rather than submit to the UN forum in New York. After the cabinet meeting of three hours, the Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that "for the 2012 budget must take steps to reduce public spending, with the aim of reducing the public ".

The government needs to get results as soon as possible if he wants to convince its European partners to validate the new aid of EUR 160 billion, decided on July 21. Representatives of the European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), the troika in charge of assessing the progress of reforms, delaying their return ever in Athens.Their endorsement, however, is decisive that Greece can get the sixth tranche of the loan of 110 billion euros granted in 2010. "Without this payment of € 8 billion, the state coffers will not hold beyond the month of October," warned Filippos Sahinidis, Vice Minister of Finance. But Saturday, after their meeting in Wroclaw in Poland, EU finance ministers have postponed the go-ahead to October. This meeting produced no significant advance both in Greece as European banks face a new crisis of confidence.

Default

Pending the arrival in Athens of the troika, the Minister Venizelos talks with his representatives this evening by telephone business cards. It should detail the new economy measures.Among the efforts demanded by the creditors of Athens, are, according to a senior Greek, "the introduction of lay-offs in all public bodies, the freezing of pensions by 2015 and the merger or closure of a thirty agencies. "

Despite the urgency of more and more prevalent in the Greek situation, the Europeans always show their divisions. The Austrian government has again raised the possibility Sunday of a default of Greece. A way officially rejected by Paris, while in his interview on TF1, the former director of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn called for "taking his loss", ie to wipe the slate Greek.

In Wroclaw, the finance ministers also confirmed the need to strengthen the weakest banks. But they kept to evoke the injection of public funds in an emergency."We're not worried," or the liquidity or solvency, provides Baroin on his return from Wroclaw. This belief annoys outside the euro zone, especially after the warning issued to Europeans by the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. "The leaders of the euro area should be aware that time is running out," launched the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne.

Aircraft manufacturers stomp, the airline announced Friday morning the details of its major order long-awaited by the industry. Air France-KLM is in need of long-haul 110 and passes a total of 50 firm orders and 60 options. The total value of the order would reach $ 20 billion at list prices and about $ 11.3 billion in firm orders. Choices that are equally balanced between the pan-European group Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing.

The firm order for 25 Airbus A350 indeed-900 and 35 options placed on these devices against 25 B787 and 25 options. The slight advantage, theoretical, obtained by Airbus was offset by the secret location by KLM B787 10, said La Tribune short term personal loan. In addition, orders will not be included in the order books of manufacturers this year.

The announcement of Air France-KLM comes after a board of directors held Thursday in New York.

One hundred French deputies had launched a petition in June to urge Air France, which the state owns 15.7%, to choose the Airbus A350 instead of the Boeing 787 for its next command.

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All weekend, they multiplied the meetings and news: the political leaders of industrialized countries have mobilized to show that they had taken stock of efforts to engage to address concerns about the state of their finances. What to try to reassure markets, worried after the announcement Friday after the close of a deterioration in the rating of sovereign debt of the United States by Standard & Poor's, but also disturbed by the difficulties faced by countries the euro area to implement the solutions to the crisis in Greece. With always in sight the risk of contagion of debt to other countries.

In the wake of the Asian stock markets, down sharply this morning, the benchmark index in Paris has started his week on a further decline (-0.74%), but avoid the dreaded crash in the markets.After a brief stint in the green, however, he digs his losses at midday, yielding 2.32% to 3202.35 points.

Certainly, markets have heard statements of intent on both sides of the Atlantic, the austerity measures to consolidate public finances in industrialized countries. Nevertheless, the nervousness and volatility are the watchwords of the meeting. Evidenced by the yo-yo in the Paris index since the beginning and the very high trading volumes of 3.3 billion euros, three hours after opening.

Even renewed concern elsewhere in Europe. In Frankfurt, the DAX retreated 2.50% and at 6080.40 points. Less for London where the FTSE 100 lost 1.71% to 5157.12 points. In Madrid, the Ibex 35 index yields, however, only 0.05% to 8666.80 points. Finally, Milan were down 0.46% to 15,942.60 points.

Relaxation rates in Spain and Italy

Yesterday, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy reiterated their determination to ensure that the bailout of Greece on 21 July be adopted before the end of September. They also praised the efforts of Spain and especially those of Italy, two weak links in the euro area at present. Indeed, Rome has advanced by one year (from 2014 to 2013) the goal of return to balance its accounts. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would implement "active" its buyback program obligations. This measure, taken and announced last week by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the institution, had absolutely convinced investors. On the contrary …But this morning, the Italian and Spanish bond yields relaxed, investors are more confident in an intervention by the ECB on the secondary bond market in both countries. Rates in ten years Spanish and Italian are ironed on Monday under 6%. Relaxation is expected to continue, while the French Minister of Economy and Finance has confirmed Baroin on Europe 1 that the ECB was ready to buy the Spanish and European debt, if investors withdrew.

American borrowing rates have, in turn, not move, indicating that the debt of the world's largest economy remains an attractive investment, against the loss of the triple A of the United States.

Next on the list?

However, uncertainty should remain in force on the European markets at the beginning of the week.The decision of Standard & Poor's in the United States continues to claim haunt the minds of the markets, despite a weekend to "digest" the news. Now that the world's largest economy, long considered one of the most reliable borrowers, is not as well marked, which could consider itself safe from degradation? In France, this concern should be limited, however, the chief economist for Europe, Standard & Poor's Jean-Michel Six, who said Saturday that the agency maintained the "AAA" of France, in a stable outlook us fast cash.

The announcement of the ECB on repurchase of bonds was initially supported the euro against the dollar. At 7 o'clock this morning, the euro was worth 1.4321 dollars, against 1.4281 dollars on Friday night, after the dollar rose to 1.4370 on Sunday night.The European currency is, however, decreasing again around noon to 1.4268 dollar.

But above all concerns macroeconomic benefit to gold, which recorded a new record Monday on the market in Hong Kong, dying for the first time the maximum 1700 dollars an ounce, and benefiting fully from his safe haven status.

The sharp drop in oil

Instead, the side of the oil, oil prices continued to tumble on Monday. Result of numerous concerns about a possible global recession, prices show a sharp decline. To 13 hours, a barrel of "light sweet crude 'lost 3.64% to 83.67 dollars.

Finally, the political mobilization should remain in force throughout the day, and guide the trend in European markets as U.S.. For the side of the macroeconomic data, the news will remain low in the first day of the week.Unlike last week, no statistics across the Atlantic will not give further details Monday about the health of the U.S. economy or the risk of a possible recession in the country. In France alone were expected business surveys of the Banque de France, unveiled on Monday its growth forecast for the third quarter. For the period, the institution expects an increase of 0.2% of French GDP, the same pace as in the previous quarter.

As for values ​​to follow, business publications are scarce this week.

Battered last week after interim results affected by exposure in Greece, banking stocks were offered a nice rally this morning before falling unevenly mid-term.BNP Paribas wins again in mid-session, 1.01%, to 41.025 euros, but Credit Agricole (- 0.27% to 7.14 euros) and Societe Generale (-2.95% to 26.625 euros ) drop out. For its part, Axa sells 1.13% to 11.425 euros. The insurer CNP Assurances is however still 3.02%, to 12.265 euros, the head of the SBF 120 index increases by mid-day.

The manufacturer Archos tablet that will detail its annual accounts after market, accounts 4.77% to 8.35 euros this morning before falling heavily to 6.78% to 7.43 euros.

Carmat (5.56% to 98.70 euros). The total artificial heart specialist said on Sunday evening the success of its capital increase launched from July 13 to 29. The former subsidiary of EADS has raised 29.3 million euros, which will fund the first clinical trials on humans.

GDF Suez (0.73% to 20.56 euros).The group of energy and services has sealed, according to Les Echos, a strategic Partenaris with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC, which would lead to an acquisition of a 30% interest in the exploration and production arm of French.

Specialist catering Sodexo (-1.84% to 49.075 euros) announced that it has won a contract worth 766 million dollars (535 million) to provide the basics of feeding twenty Marines, the United States.

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Pressure mounts on Barack Obama. While the deadline of August 2 approach, the U.S. president can not convince Republicans to vote on raising the debt ceiling of the United States. He must now face the threat of a deterioration in the country's sovereign rating from Moody's. Wednesday evening, the rating agency said it could in the coming weeks to lower the American note, currently the highest possible AAA, AA category, which is an investment category.

Moody's became the first of the three major rating agencies to place the note in the United States under surveillance with risk of a downgrade. In a statement, she said, receive "a possibility of increasing the maximum statutory debt is not found in time."Without an agreement, the U.S. could miss some payments on government bonds in circulation, she says. The dollar and U.S. bonds fell after the announcement. The dollar's share has compounded its losses. In morning trading, the euro is worth 1.4196 dollars.

The agency intends to end the monitoring as soon as it can conclude whether a defect is avoidable or not. It will then decide if the United States are entitled to keep a stable outlook on their ratings, on the basis of the budget negotiations between Democrats and Republicans. But even if Congress manages to avoid a technical default in August, increases the likelihood of a revision of the outlook to negative in the weeks following, told Reuters Steven Hess, Moody's analyst."The fact that they do not agree on are the maximum debt shows that the outcome of negotiations on the status of long-term debt may not be very positive," said he.

Recall

Following this announcement, the Deputy Treasury Secretary for Finance interior, Jeffrey Goldstein, said the Moody's decision was a timely reminder of the need for Congress to avoid a default and to seal an agreement to reduce serious budget deficit.

For Democrat Chris Van Hollen, the words of Moody's demonstrated the danger in the ideological debates. "The fact that Moody's places the United States under surveillance and downgrade our rating to AAA underlines the danger of those who would do our economy and our jobs hostage to a rigid ideology instead of acting in the best interests of our country, "he said.

Tense discussions at the White House

The opinion of Moody's fell just before the fourth interview in four days between Barack Obama and the leader of the Congress. According to a Republican parliamentary attaché, she was the most tense of all. To conclude the meeting of Wednesday, the president of the United States would have meant he would no longer concession, even if it were put at risk its mandate. "I got to the point where I have to say 'enough is enough!" Is Ronald Reagan would sit here? I reached my limits. This may possibly lead to the end of my presidency, but I will not yield on this point ", would he have said.

Denying the information that the President had left the room abruptly, an audience member who requested anonymity confirmed that he had expressed his exasperation, saying, "Enough!".Barack Obama, who will again parliamentary leaders on Thursday, has also asked to renounce the political maneuvering, according to a member of the Democratic Party.

In this context, the President of the U.S. central bank (Fed), Ben Bernanke, warned that failure to pay the United States would create "huge problems" for the country and a "major crisis" in the world .

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Three weeks ago, the sales had started to rain. Despite milder weather, the French have not rushed into stores more later. Sales in the clothing sector, the most dependent of these periods of seasonal inventory reduction, even down 6% on average compared to last year. And for the first time since 2006, according to the first two weeks of record established yesterday by the French Institute of Fashion (IFM).

Department stores, however, derive, again, their game: Printemps and Galeries Lafayette have seen their revenues grow 10% to 15%. Positioned on the high end, these signs are much less dependent on the macroeconomic environment as hypermarkets and supermarkets, the big losers in the sales season.Their sales have dropped between 15% and 20%, but, like other retailers, they had a strong April and May. "The effect of expectation was probably less important this year," says Charles Tillard-head, head of research at IFM.

Purchases spread out over

But there is also an underlying trend that is emerging: consumers spread their purchases more and more over the year. This is, firstly, the result of the law of modernization of the economy (LME) in 2009, which allows merchants to create freely floating balances two weeks a year and has made the practice more free promotions . In clothing, for the first time in 2010, purchases were over promotions (value) purchases balances, note the Research Centre for the Study and Observation of Living Conditions (Crédoc) in a study published Monday."With discounts during promotions weaker than in the traditional balances, margin rates are in total pay" for retailers, notes the institute.

On the other hand, the French buy more dresses and their other pants resulted on the Internet. Often still young, predominantly textile sites saw their turnover rise by 27% during the first week and the average increase of 8%, according to the Federation of e-commerce and sales Remote (Fevad). Two million visitors have visited such Laredoute.fr June 22, when they are usually 9 million per month. "This increase does not offset the decline in sales in the physical networks," said Charles Tillard-head.

The trend is the same for the other sites observed by Fevad: sales rose by an average of 15% over last year.The average basket is also increasing by 2%: Internet users spent an average of 105 euros in sales.

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