My Opinions

The Paris Bourse addresses the meeting on an optimistic note. The CAC 40 in advance of 0.57% in early trade at 3,411.55 points. After a small rebound by 0.89% yesterday, the CAC 40 is expected to continue its momentum on Thursday and follow the trend set by Wall Street and Asian stock markets which closed on beautiful hikes.

This is the big day for Greece. At 21 hours (Paris time), we know the rate of participation of private creditors in the debt swap. The number must be greater than 75% to avoid a bankruptcy of the country. Last night, more than half of the creditors involved in the transaction was agreed. Greece is not less than 90% participation.

Earlier this afternoon, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, should leave unchanged its interest rate to 1% following two consecutive declines of 25 basis points each.

Euro and oil rose slightly

On the foreign exchange market, the euro rose 0.13% to 1.3168 against the greenback dollar. Side of the oil markets, Brent was stable at 124.26 dollars and WTI rose 0.14% to 106.30 dollars.

Investors will also digest of new business publications. EADS (+6.3% to 28.55 euros) announced an increase of 87% of its annual net profit to 1.033 billion euros and an increase of 7% to 49.13 billion of its turnover.

The distribution group Carrefour (-0.77% to 17.48 euros) announced a net profit down 14.3% for 2011 to € 371 million and a dividend halved to 0.52 euro per share , after a difficult year, marked by three profit warnings.

Air France-KLM (-2.20% to 4.09 euros) registered last year a net loss of 809 million euros and an operating loss of 353 million. The airline, whose sales rose 4.5% to 24.36 billion euros, has set a target to stabilize in 2012 its net debt to 6.5 billion euros.

The U.S. company Simon Property will acquire a 28.7% Klépierre (4.94% to 24.55 euros) with BNP Paribas, which held 51% stake in the French property.

The display group and JCDecaux street furniture (0.84% ​​to 20.90 euros) made a leap from 22.7% to 212.6 million euros in net profit after minority interests in 2011, thanks a booming business. Moreover, according to chief executive, Jean-Francois Decaux, the expected benefit this year of holding the Summer Olympics in London, which should generate six to seven points of additional growth in outdoor advertising.

The chemist Arkema (1.65% to 67.83 euros) has revised upwards its medium-term objectives, relying for now on a 2016 turnover of EUR 8 billion and a gross operating income ( EBITDA) of $ 1.25 billion, showing an early 2012 recovery in activity.

France still has destroyed jobs

On the macroeconomic front, 22,600 jobs have been destroyed in the fourth quarter after the removal of 31,500 jobs in the third quarter, according to figures from INSEE. Moreover, the trade deficit of France increased by almost 300 million euros in January compared to the previous month, reaching 5.324 billion euro, Customs officials said Thursday.

Across the Atlantic, one indicator is on the agenda: the weekly claims for unemployment benefits (1430).

After a slump, exports of French military hardware recovered strongly in 2011. "The total is expected to reach 6.5 billion euros, which allows France to maintain its position as the fourth largest exporter of arms," ​​said Wednesday Laurent Collet-Billon, general delegate to the Armaments (DGA).

The sale of two buildings Projection and Command (BPC) Mistral class in Russia, the contract for upgrading the Mirage 2000 in India or the sale of large 4 × 4 Aravis protected in Saudi Arabia accelerated to 27% export activity compared to 2010. Lack of large contracts, it had fallen to 5.1 billion euros last year.

Laurent Collet-Billon notes that "French exports are made up two-thirds of small contracts which constitute a solid base." More sophisticated, large contracts are part of longer timeframes. They are subject to deadlines and time consuming to negotiate very detailed, especially as the client country is no longer content to "sign a check," but hopes to capture some of the expertise of the selling country via transfer technology.

"Performance" of France is good news for 100,000 jobs, half of which direct exports that depend on contracts. But it is still far from its target of 10 billion euros in exports, a level considered ideal by the CEO because it would be equivalent in value to the national command.

Franco-British axis

In 2011, France spent 10.7 billion euros in R & D and equipment purchases for the armed forces such as NH 4 90 transport helicopters, six Tiger combat gear, more than a hundred armored (VBCI) or 4000 devices to the Felin infantry fast cash loans.

In terms of budget, continuity is crucial. We must continue its effort of R & D to prepare "defense systems" wars of the future. Among the sites are open marine robotics, cyber warfare or UAVs (unmanned aircraft). Because of defense budgets on, part of the answer lies in "pragmatic cooperation" with our European neighbors, said the DGA.

This is why France and Britain, the first two European military powers, have decided to advance by creating a UAV industry – the small tactical UAV through a viewing device and an unmanned fighter (read our editions of 17 and 18 February). This, based on their respective champions – Dassault Aviation and BAE Systems – bilaterally. With the prospect later to make the two engines of future European programs.

The French army should be equipped, like its British counterpart, Watchkeeper tactical UAV, built by Thales UK, by 2013. "In a few weeks, the DGA will ask BAE and Dassault to launch the assessment phase of the future UAV observation Male," said Laurent Collet-Billon, indicating having received "an offer last week from Dassault" about the future of UAV platform through Israeli (Heron TP).

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Under the fiscal 2011, TF1 achieved stable sales to 2.62 billion euros compared to 2010. However, the chain headed by Nonce Paolini seen advertising revenues fall by 2.9% to 1.5 billion euros. What encouraged the group to a conservative forecast for 2012.

However, the advertising revenue of the group TF1 is up 1.6% to 1.821 billion. As for the M6, this increase is due to activities including digital and video advertising on the Internet and the integration of TMC and NT1.

A trend found in the income grouped under the activity Broadcasting France (2.1 billion euros, up 1.2%) and includes the subsidiaries e-TF1, TF1 Enterprises and pole production doped in 2011, by the success of the movie "Untouchables".

The turnover "other activities" increases, meanwhile, from 4% to 1.115 billion euros. Growth on redemption of TMC, NT1 and share in Metro France.

Strict financial orthodoxy

Lack of blockbusters, and because of the collapse of the video market, the subsidiary rights audiovisual saw its sales fall by 27.4 to 115.5 million euros No teletrak payday loan.

For its part, the group's net profit down 20% to 183 million euros. The group recalls that excluding exceptional items of 82.8 million positive net earnings were boosted in 2010, the 2011 would print up 25%. Operating profit increased by 22.8% to its 282.9 million euros.  

The first private television group, which combines still 23.7% audience share, has improved its operating profitability as the latter increased from 8.8% in 2010 to 10.8% improvement in 2011.Une due to the decreasing cost of the grid's flagship TF1 who returned from 950 to 905 million euros.

For the years 2012/2013, TF1 has also decided to revise downwards the forecasts of the latter to € 930 million against a forecast 2011/2012 to 950 million. In fact, the subsidiary of Martin Bouygues is clearly the choice of strict financial orthodoxy.

In exchange, these ads are welcome. The title wins more than 7%.

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Gran Via, Saturday afternoon, thousands of Madrid overflowing sidewalks to rob the shops in the center. Plaza Santa Ana customers compete tables for a drink and some tapas … According to a recent survey, 68% of Spaniards say they are happy despite the economic depression. The Spanish crisis is a strange crisis. Five million unemployed, a growing half-mast and a debt to the edge of the alert levels, but the fiesta continues. On the surface, anyway.

The costs of the crisis, in fact, are unevenly distributed. On the one hand, those who retain their jobs. Possibly concerned about the situation, their objective situation has changed little since the crisis began, three years ago. On the other, 21.5% of those unemployed, whose number is increasing. Poorly defended, forgotten unions, their suffering is silent.As to the exhaustion of benefits, the first victims of the crisis, however, sinking slowly into exclusion.

Withdrawal into the family

Alejandro lives under the threat of expulsion. He, his brother and his mother, he unwittingly embarked in his galley. 28 years old, he had offered to help a colleague get a home loan. He signed his mother too, and they vouched. Before the crisis, Alejandro had a job as an electrician, he believed that his salary was only threatened, if by chance his friend forgot to pay a bill. When the colleague left no forwarding address, the bank asked his due: 168,000 euros of debt. "Due immediately," says the letter from the bailiff. Now unemployed, Alejandro key 340 euros compensation unemployment. His brother does not work either. Only his mother still affects a salary: 1200 euros.

Increase in VAT, income tax, any revaluation of benefits: the austerity plan announced Tuesday include unpopular measures. Consideration by the Parliament, which begins Nov. 28 in the Assembly, will not be a walkover. In the majority, the New Centre Group is thus opposed to indexation on growth, less generous, family benefits and housing subsidies. "We must protect families and tenants. We propose instead to plane more strongly niches and seek extra mile to large enterprises, "says centrist MP Charles de Courson.

During questions to the Assembly, Valérie Pécresse, Minister for the Budget, on Tuesday refused any negotiations on this subject, arguing that "we can not spend more than we create wealth payday loans."

The government remains firm, but the battle could be fierce and Gilles Carrez, Rapporteur UMP budget to the Assembly, will have work to do to stay the course. "The increase in VAT will not affect consumption. The move to 7% will not be fully reflected in prices, "he says now, to counter the arguments of sectors such as housing, food, culture and hospitality. Accor claims and the elimination of the tax on hotel stays, while the union of publishing an application meeting with Francois Fillon.

Tuesday, members of the Finance Committee in examining the second part of the draft budget law for 2012, which accepts the austerity plan in August. This has resulted in collisions.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced Monday, after a special cabinet, new austerity measures. The amount? Range evolves 6-8000000000 euros. The downward revision of growth in 2012 (1.75% to 1%) means to provide such an effort if France does not want its deficit skid.

Among the tracks mentioned: an increase in corporate tax (IS) for large companies and action on VAT. Specifically, according to reports, companies making more than 500 million euros in turnover should pay an additional tax (eg 10%). The nominal rate of corporation tax will not be found … but the big companies will actually pay more. And perhaps as early as the down payment in December. The state expects 1 billion additional revenue per year.

Wall Street opened down on Friday. In early trade, the Dow Jones ceded 0.65% to 11,971.90 points and the Nasdaq 0.51% to 2684 points. Job creation has slowed sharply in the United States in October but this has not prevented the unemployment rate to fall slightly, according to official figures published on Friday in Washington. The net hiring amounted to 80,000 jobs, or half that in September, said the monthly report on employment in the department of Travail.Le Ministry also indicates that the unemployment rate fell to 9.0% in October, after spending three months at 9.1%.

Investors remain suspended to changes in the Greek case, the last day of the summit of major developed and emerging G20 Cannes fast cash online. Thursday, the New York Stock Exchange ended the session sharply higher, in the wake of European markets.The markets welcomed the surprise cut rates the European Central Bank and the withdrawal of the proposed referendum Greek Prime Minister Papandreou.

In Europe, this Friday, the Greek government plays its all in a vote of confidence from the parliament in the evening. Meanwhile, the fate of Prime Minister George Papandreou seems already sealed after the failure of the referendum proposal.

The bus and its small price could soon impose on domestic journeys. The Department of Transportation would indeed currently working on a bill authorizing domestic routes by mode of transport. "The text is discussed in inter-and we hope to present it in late February, before the end of the parliamentary session," said a spokesman for the ministry.

This would be a small revolution in the world of the French transmission. Indeed, for the moment, only the cabotage is allowed, that is to say the possibility of a bus carrying an international connection to a regular passenger in a French town and the land in another municipality of the Hexagon . This activity is only allowed from the publication of a decree in January.Eurolines is immediately seized it and announced, in February, opening the French territory over 500 trips from region to region, with lower rates on average 50% lower than the train.

SNCF not necessarily opposed

Direct competition with the train is also at stake in this future proposal. Regions that manage the funding lines TER directly involved, could indeed put all their weight to oppose the project. At the congress of the National Federation of passenger transport (FNTV), last week, Thierry Mariani, the transport minister, had ensured that these national lines "should not upset the economic balance of TER lines." The ministry promises today, "the opening line will be made after consultation with the communities and provided they do not jeopardize a public service contract."

For its part, the SNCF does not necessarily see this opening with a jaundiced eye. The railway company, which is already on the bus segment via its branch TER, could also take the opportunity to expand its offer. The boss of this activity, Jean-Pierre Farandou, explained during the same Congress that "the whole rail is not the solution. It should be a complementary service to irrigate the area where the train can not go. "

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The CAC 40 is close to balance on Monday, gaining 0.22% in the morning at 3102.8 points. After a weekend in the green, the Paris Bourse, however, should be on guard Monday. As in Asia this morning, markets should take the time to analyze the ads the weekend about the future of the single currency and the fate of European banks. On the first issue, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, meeting in Berlin on Sunday pledged to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit in Cannes, 3 and 4 November. Proposals must be made but no details were supplied. "You will see the end of an entire fully functional," promised the Chancellor.The fate of Greece is suspended from his verdict of the Troika, reminded the two leaders.

About the difficulties the European banking sector, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy said they were "determined to do whatever it takes to ensure the recapitalization of our banks." The French president also assured that the agreement between the two countries on how and where the process was considered "complete", denying the reports of differences over the use of EFSF to provide the necessary funds. Again, the "details" will be specified later, they promised, even suggesting an EU summit scheduled for October 17 and 18 and a Eurogroup.

Concern persists

In this context of waiting, investors should remain cautious.Especially as other disturbing news on the euro area fell: Fitch has degraded the notes of Spain and Italy and Belgium threat. Decisions that have already sealed the mood on Wall Street Friday, despite good employment figures.

In terms of statistics, the Bank of France reiterated its forecast of growth of 0.1% of the French economy in the third quarter, based on the results of its latest monthly business survey. Moreover, the French industrial production registered a further rise of 0.5% in August compared to July after jumping 1.8% (revised) the previous month, said Monday the National Institute of Statistics ( INSEE). German exports rose more than expected in August, bringing the trade surplus to its highest level since March.The trade surplus adjusted for seasonal variations reached 13.8 billion euros against 10.6 billion euros (revised) in July.

On the currency side, the euro is rising against the greenback at 1.3477 dollar. Oil is also up: a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in November gained 93 cents to 83.91 dollars in Asia, and a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery was appreciating by 53 cents to 106.41 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Dexia (rating suspended)

The Belgian state will take control of all of Dexia Bank Belgium, the Belgian entity of the Dexia Group will be dismantled, for a total of 4 billion euros, the Belgian government said this morning at a conference Press.Belgium will also ensure funding for the future "bad bank" that remain after the dismantling of the Dexia group of up to 60.5%, amounting to 54 billion euros. Trading in Dexia has been suspended since last Thursday.Euronext could not say when the listing would take the title.

• Renault (0.53% to 25.80 euros)

The automaker is expected to announce on Friday a reorganization of the group which will extend the power of its CEO, Carlos Ghosn, Tribune reported Monday.

• Air France-KLM (2.9% to 5.30 euros)

The airline said passenger traffic up 9.3% in September and cargo traffic down 3.4% in September.

• Veolia (0.99% to 10.82 euros)

The service group sold its restructuring investment company Eolfi Asset Management, specializing in the management of funds investing in solar and wind energy, according to La Tribune.

• Dassault Aviation (0.30% to 674 euros)

The aircraft manufacturer (group owner Figaro) yesterday announced a resumption of aircraft orders, which have doubled year on year to 2.065 billion euros.

• Technip (1.20% to 60.71 euros)

The subsidiary Duco has been awarded by Shell Offshore two contracts for field development and Cardamom West Boreas, the Gulf of Mexico.

• Maurel et Prom (1.34% to 12.89 euros)

The group announced that statigraphique wells (drilled with a light fitting) Sab Strat-1A demonstrated the presence of oil on the driver's Sabanero in Colombia.

• Total (0.38% to 35.48 euros)

The inter-union employees of the refinery in Berre l'Etang-(Bouches-du-Rhône) of LyondellBasell, within the scope of a proposed closure, said Saturday at a general meeting is restarted until the end of December, found a corresponding of AFP.

• Artprice (-0.53% to 30.30 euros)

In an interview with Boursica, Thierry Ehrmann, the president of the Lyon-based company, said the groups' relatively young and wealthy "want to capture the potential of the art market in Asia and would think to do with the support of Artprice, for commercial gain or capital.

She has it all in these turbulent times. The piece that sells for 200 euros on Monday, the Monnaie de Paris is solid gold. A metal sought by individuals particularly since the financial turmoil. The 50,000 copies (999 per thousand of gold) are sold on the website of the Paris Mint www.monnaiedeparis.fr at its headquarters in Paris and in 1000 post offices.

For collectors, it is a copy of most in the series of Euro regions (silver coins with a face containing the names of 27 French regions). "This piece represents a safe investment, since it still be worth at least face value," it says to the Monnaie de Paris. An argument that has more weight than other investments are sad mine.

When she threw parts of the regions 10 euros in cash (one model per region), the Monnaie de Paris had found at his door in the morning thousands of individuals. And the quota available on the Internet had passed in less than a morning on a one-piece per second. Fans will do so many this time? Gold is the ultimate safe haven, but today it is no longer 10, but 200 euros to be paid to pocket a new gold coin. Verdict noon.

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