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From our correspondent in Brussels The European economy is showing signs of continued weakness. The Brussels Commission anticipates the continuation of a "mild recession" throughout the first half of 2012, in its latest forecast released Friday. She was pushed to the slow recovery, driven by global growth and trade. But the burst also requires the continued recovery: "If we do not undertake new efforts resolutely, growth could remain weak," says Olli Rehn, Commissioner for the Economy. The warning is aimed, among others, in Paris.

The European Commission confirms that it indeed does not believe in the commitment of France to return to a deficit of 3% of GDP: it believes that the path leads instead to 4.2%, but policy change in the meantime . What complicates the situation for Francois Hollande and, perhaps, weaken some of its most expensive promises.

Under the scrutiny of experts, Europe – and particularly the eurozone – is a group exposed to "great disparities", if not serious tensions. In Germany, the first class out of reach of any material, opposes Spain, the fourth economy of the euro, which never ceases to plunge into the red whether the activity, unemployment or public accounts. Within Euroland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Ireland also miss the fiscal trial run. Clearly, the debate austerity-growth is not about to be extinguished. Not to mention the Greek hopeless case …

The fiscal covenant "is not stupid."

Madrid promises to return to 3% deficit next year? The Commission corrects and provides 6.3%. Realistic to Brussels, Conservative Mariano Rajoy could be the first to benefit from a late May deadline pushed back to 2014, even dent the official code of collective discipline. Commissioner Rehn dodged the question. But he raised the possibility of treatment "differentiated" because, he said, the fiscal pact "is not stupid."

For France, the hypothesis of a loosening of the stranglehold of 3% next year, however, is not on the shelves. "We expect that the French authorities specify the measures planned for 2013," Olli Rehn impatient setting out for the first time at the podium a request already heard behind the scenes in Europe, chaired by Sarkozy. The Commission will make its recommendations on May 31 Sanctions against Paris would intervene only after several years of deficits observed.

"We're not there yet," they say in Brussels. But France would have no mitigating circumstance – unlike Spain, Greece or Ireland. In keeping with German and domestic demand, which resists the Hexagon would grow by 0.5% this year and 1.3% in 2013. Unemployment, though rising steadily (10.3% next year), would remain below 11% of euro area average.

In comparison, France's President Holland is not the worst off and she still has to restore its margin accounts.

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That's at least one area in which Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande are the same observation. To build more and cheaper to build, the state, which is the largest landowner in France, should accelerate the sale of its lands. It is urgent: according to the Fondation Abbé Pierre, missing 900,000 homes in the Hexagon. To end this shortage, it would build 500,000 per year. But in 2011, which was not a bad thought, we built only 360,000.

Course, freeing land owned by the state and public institutions (SNCF, La Poste, RFF …) alone will not solve the problem. Again, the outgoing president and his opponent argue the same figures: this commitment will build 100,000 homes over the five year term. However, the two candidates differ on the implementation of this policy. "We will sell the land at market price, because we do not want to burden the state budget, says Benoist Found, the Minister of Housing. This will yield $ 2 billion. And we will build both social housing as housing homeownership. "" We will give the land to ultimately bring down prices of apartments, retorted Senator Repentin Thierry, in charge of housing the team in Holland. And we will build exclusively social housing. "

The idea of ​​selling land to large-scale department to remedy the housing shortage is not new. Nicolas Sarkozy has already been set to music between 2008 and 2012. With, the key 55,000 homes. Previously, Dominique de Villepin, prime minister, had tested in 2006. Result, today, many real estate projects are developed on former public land.

Unavoidable delays

Thus, in Dijon, 450 dwellings are currently out of the ground instead of the military hospital Hyacinthe Vincent, disused. In Paris, 3,500 apartments, of which the first to deliver in two years, will be built at Batignolles on land ceded by the SNCF and RFF. Of urban redevelopment initiatives have a major drawback: they take too much time. It took fifteen years for the first buildings to be built at the fort of Issy-les-Moulineaux, which housed the Directorate General of Armaments (DGA).

"These are times to extension, as there are plenty of incompressible phases: the negotiation of the sale price, changing the local development plan (PLU), demolition, obtaining building permits, the possible the clearance of …, "said Jean-Claude Florence, deputy department in charge of conveyancing to the Department of Defense. Another black spot: public operators sell the land without any discount, the market price. And as the land itself adds every year, they also help to increase prices of new housing.

 

Failing to generate enthusiasm, Nicolas Sarkozy's proposal to increase by 30% the rights to build at least have helped revive the debate. That the obstacles to build more and better in our country. On this point, they all agree: France is no shortage of building land and still can not build as much as its neighbors. Blockages that maintain higher prices. To take the problem at its root, several avenues are being considered.

The first, held by Nicolas Sarkozy, setting the density. Adopted on March 6, his bill should allow to build higher buildings and increase the surface of the houses. It is also necessary that councils do not object. "I am not satisfied that it is revolutionizing the market, says Rene Pallincourt, president of the Fnaim. It will be difficult to implement and will involve mainly the individual sector pavilion. The risk is that by increasing the building rights, the land price is moving upward rather than downward. "

To end regressive taxation on the land

For its part, the association Promotoit bringing together industrial specialists in roofing campaigns for these solutions to build under his roof. In a white paper published March 12, these professionals emphasize the value of the elevation of the dwellings. According to the study of the urban architect Michel Cantal-Dupart, it would be possible to build 466,000 square meters of rooftops in Paris focusing only 12 blocks and respecting the existing rules of the local plan (PLU) . In addition, fit out attics in houses represents a much larger potential yet.

However, densification has its limits. It is of little interest in peripheral areas and can be very expensive in urban areas. "We must abandon the dogma of the only densification to produce more land, said Jean-Philippe Bourgade, CEO of developer Bouwfonds Marignan Estate personal loans for bad credit. The raw material is there, it only remains to find the political will. "Ideas abound. "To increase land supply, avoid retention through new tax rules and open to urban land reserved for it in the PLU," said Marc Pigeon, president of the Federation of property developers. On taxation, most professionals agree to demand an end to the decreasing taxation on capital gains pushing the owners to keep their land as long as possible. The French Building Federation goes further by suggesting a progressive tax (0% the first year, 10% the second, etc..) Other widely discussed proposal: since there is little mayors "builders" poised to significantly increase supply land, why not manage the building permit or the PLU level inter?

As a major landowner, the state could also lead by example by making its land available. Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande suggested: the first considering a rental and the second one free availability. A final track is to densify the residential areas in redécoupant lands of private owners. A proposition advanced in the research project "Bimby" (Build in my backyard, Build in my garden). First practical application: a network of 'consulting division piecemeal "called Terra in Design, based in Paris, Lyon and Rouen. This service combines architectural skills, legal and financial resources to provide buyers and sellers of solutions division of land for new construction.

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Children dressed in suits and ties at the controls of a gelatin factory teddy, preparing delivery giant Haribo sweets. This is the wildest dream of any toddler … To swallow his delicacies across the Atlantic, Europe's leading confectionery, world No. 8, put the package. Its first national advertising campaign is currently broadcast on several cable channels (Nickelodeon, Disney Channel, Cartoon Network). Millions of samples are distributed from New York to Los Angeles. And a Facebook page was launched.

Installed in the U.S. since the 1980s, Haribo now want to throttle. "The United States is the world's largest market in confectionery, says Jean-Philippe Andre, president of Haribo France, which has also taken over the reins of the U.S. subsidiary, based in Baltimore. We realize there are some fifty million dollars in sales, it's nothing compared to the potential of this market. "

Sales of sugar confectionery (candy, lollipops, toffees …) have approached last year $ 10 billion (1.3,%), which over a third for gummies, the specialty of Haribo, according to Euromonitor. With its flagship product, the teddy gel (Gold-Bears), imported from Germany and Spain, the German manufacturer has experienced double digit growth for five years, including more than 20% in 2011.

Officially, it gives a year to see if consumers respond to his seduction operation. In reality, it prepares its weapons against the heavyweights of the category, Twizzlers (Hershey), Starburst and Skittles (Mars). But not only. "In the land of crisps and snacks, we must impose our candy share of stomach," says Jean-Philippe André.

Recycle the classics while modernizing

This is the second step in the internationalization of the group after the Eastern Europe (Hungary, Bulgaria, Russia …) in the 2000s. Born in Germany in 1920, Haribo was first spread in Denmark, France, Spain and Belgium. The company, which weighs about 2 billion euros, exports its candy in 105 countries, Germany remains its largest market. The International is one of the sites and Hans-Guido Riegel Hans-Arndt, nephews and successors Hans Riegel, 89, still in command of the company he founded with his wife in Bonn.

Recipes for success should remain the same. Production is local. In France, the only country where strawberries are sold Tagada and Dragibus, nearly 90% of the candies are manufactured in two factories in the South. And is recycled by modernizing the classics. For proof, since the launch last fall candy spicy Pik. This is the segment that the fastest increase in radius confectionery (13.2%, according to Nielsen).

Challenger is the leading Lutti, Haribo has already captured 16% market share, especially among adolescents, and intends to grow further thanks to Smurf, crocodiles or coke bottles now available spicy declined. "For six years we have a growth of around 5% in France, second largest group, but we still have significant room for improvement," said Jean-Philippe André, whose sales rose by 7, 5% last year to 180 million euros.

Since 2006, he revived the radius to blow promotions, capitalized on the quarantine and delivered Tagada strawberry marks (Tagada Dragibus, marshmallow) on the screen, betting on particular spots in 3D cinema.

Prevail in hotels and sports stores

His roadmap for the future: Haribo impose beyond the supermarket shelves, which represent 80% of sales, use and renew with new formats. Apart from sachets of 50 g generalized for three years, he tested since the beginning of the year a case of three candies (or Tagada Dragibus) to 0.30 euro that can easily slip into his pocket. "The ambition is to be available everywhere, like Coca-Cola, responding to opportunities to use multiple means of specific packaging," says Jean-Philippe André.

After opening two stores in the outlets (Toulouse and Troyes), Haribo is gradually in toy stores (Toys'R'Us, King Jouet), hobby or sport (Intersport). And he intends to push his pawns in the chains of hotels and restaurants. After the strawberries in desserts Tagada Quick Dragibus and coffee served in restaurants in Indiana, Haribo hopes to strengthen its presence in Accor hotels. When will Tagada strawberries on the pillow in arriving at a Novotel?

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Since formalizing his candidacy on February 15, Nicolas Sarkozy deseeded thirty proposals, his team compiled a campaign document, presented Thursday. The president-nominee warned, however, he intended to issue new proposals before the end of the campaign.

Nicolas Sarkozy has also presented his "letter to the French," in which he exhibited his "values" and his "vision of France" by the year 2017. This document, published in several million copies, will be distributed as part of an operation of door to door. On the first page of the 34-page document, is a sentence written by hand by Nicolas Sarkozy: "My fellow Americans, there is nothing more beautiful than the love of his country."

"Read" Letter to the French "Nicolas Sarkozy

• Economy and Public Finance

"" All my proposals are built around one goal: the balance of public finances in 2016, "said Nicolas Sarkozy business cards. He confirmed in his project a French public deficit has 0% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 and a surplus of 0.5% in 2017. Incumbent President states in his proposed reduction of the French public debt to 80.2% in 2017 instead of 85.8% in 2011 with European commitments.

"To achieve the deficit targets, the tax burden will increase from 43.8% of GDP in 2011 to 45.6% in 2017 in France. Nicolas Sarkozy plans in its plan to cut public spending in France to 51.9% of GDP in 2017 instead of 55.9% in 2011.

"Nicolas Sarkozy has acknowledged that 115 billion effort is needed over five years. "I have to add the 9.5 billion campaign proposals," he added. This brings the total effort of 124 billion. Three quarters will focus on reducing expenses, the remainder of the revenue, insisted the president candidate, as he had already announced.

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Consumer confidence has rebounded dramatically and unexpectedly in March. The economic confidence index, released Tuesday by INSEE, has actually won 5 points this month. At 87 points, it finds its level in February 2011 but remains low. "This increase, the third in three months, confirms the end of the downward trend of the index," says Alain Carbonne, France economist of Natixis.

Analysts scrutinizing the fine details of the statistics of the day, they explain this evolution wrong. Certainly, households are less numerous than in February to anticipate a rise in unemployment, reflecting the more moderate than before the number of unemployed in February. The indicator addressing the issue is still well above its long-term average, with 57 points.  

Anticipated change

But it is the consumer confidence about their future standard of living that records a boom in March (12 points to -39 points), pulling all the confidence index. It has, since its lowest level reached last November, a cumulative increase of 24 points. "The presidential election seems to be the only factor behind this increase, the economist Dominique Barbet of BNP Paribas Faxless payday loans. It seems that households expect a policy change for the better. "And the analyst noted that the previous record increase of consumer sentiment had occurred in May 2007, after the presidential election.

Depressed consumption

Renewed consumer confidence could result in a moderate recovery in consumption, after two small declines in December and January. Do not expect a dramatic recovery: "The opportunity to make major purchases (eg car), the most important component of the indicator of consumer sentiment from INSEE, remained stable in March despite the upturn in other sub-indices, notes Alain Carbon. And do not forget that consumption is expected to remain depressed throughout the year because of high unemployment and the expected decline in real wages through inflation amputees. "

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It was too dry in southern Europe. Particularly in Portugal, where the month of February was the driest in 80 years, and Spain. "The disturbances do not pass. (…) We are witnessing an upsurge in forest fires and streams experiencing flow rates up to 80% below normal, "noted recently The Weather Channel. "No improvement, or real return of rain is expected," worries do we, as the drought could lead to "catastrophic harvest."

Red indicates a severe drought.

 

The "budget day" is not an easy feat in the UK. Wednesday morning after getting out of his office of 11 Downing Street hand with the red briefcase containing his proposed budget, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, was followed by a helicopter news channel Sky News on its journey to the seat of Parliament at Westminster, not far away. Before the deputies, he presented his proposals "pro-business without shame" for the fiscal year that starts in April.

The controversial reduction in higher rate of income tax from 50 to 45% is confirmed and a reduction in corporation tax from 26% to 24% next month, and 22% of by 2014.

Difficult to continue to blow that austerity for everyone, as pointed out by the opposition Labour leader Ed Miliband instant payday loan lenders. The government counters that it compensates for these cuts by increasing taxes on real estate or a hunt for tax evasion. But one of the major economies is the reduction of social benefits, including family allowances, approved last month.

Despite this fiscal redistribution, the Minister of Economy did not budge from its priority to fiscal consolidation. The objective of removing the budget deficit in five years remains valid. But the euro crisis requires, it was shifted to two years to 2017. The deficit will still be 143 billion euros this year. It was only after 2015 that the debt could theoretically decrease.

Anticipated recovery of investments

 

The British government is preparing to launch a new phase of privatization of the public sector. The Prime Minister, David Cameron, on Monday launched a consultation on the possibility of using private funds to modernize the country's overcrowded roads. "We lose £ 7 billion (8.4 billion euros) a year because of traffic jams – and yet the last government built only 25 miles (40 kilometers) of new highways, which, incidentally, is Unless the number of ministers of transport of this government, "the Prime Minister justified. He emphasized the dangers to the UK economy of underinvestment in infrastructure, while his government is engaged in a comprehensive program to reduce public spending, including the 2012-2013 budget presented Wednesday will again be the illustration.

To solve this square the circle, the government wants to seek private financing, from investment funds, sovereign funds and other investors. The Minister of Economy, George Osborne, recently visited China to try to convince Beijing to invest in infrastructure programs in Britain. He hopes to attract 20 billion pounds (24 billion) of funds for roads, railways, nuclear or high-speed Internet network. According to the liberal doctrine into force in Downing Street, private companies are better able than government to effectively manage the cost of maintaining and upgrading aging road network.

Vehicle Tax

About 3% of the country's roads, the busiest, would be assigned to long-term concession (several decades) to private companies no teletrack payday loans. But, in order not to incur the wrath of the powerful car lobby, David Cameron has promised that no toll would be allowed on existing routes. A single stretch of motorway, north of Birmingham, is subject to tolls and the coup remains underutilized. When Tony Blair had discussed the idea in 2007 to increase tolls, he had to retreat after a petition signed by more than 1.8 million citizens. Cameron suggests that only capacity increases can justify tolls.

The proposed scheme would be for dealers part of the budget for highways from the vehicle tax, which pays 6 billion pounds per year (7.2 billion euros). "There is not yet determined the business model, says Alasdair Reisner, the Civil Engineering Contractors Association, which will be included in the consultation. One can imagine a shadow toll, paid by the government based on a number of cars on a given axis. If the road is not usable at any given time, the subsidy would not be paid. "

David Cameron cites the privatization of water systems UK under Margaret Thatcher as the model to follow. What consumer groups reacted by denouncing the large increases in bills incurred since by households. "Instead of alleviating the burden on motorists, the government is willing to let private companies take over the strategic road network and make it pay to drivers," denounces Maria Eagle, transport manager at Party Labor.

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The Paris Bourse addresses the meeting on an optimistic note. The CAC 40 in advance of 0.57% in early trade at 3,411.55 points. After a small rebound by 0.89% yesterday, the CAC 40 is expected to continue its momentum on Thursday and follow the trend set by Wall Street and Asian stock markets which closed on beautiful hikes.

This is the big day for Greece. At 21 hours (Paris time), we know the rate of participation of private creditors in the debt swap. The number must be greater than 75% to avoid a bankruptcy of the country. Last night, more than half of the creditors involved in the transaction was agreed. Greece is not less than 90% participation.

Earlier this afternoon, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, should leave unchanged its interest rate to 1% following two consecutive declines of 25 basis points each.

Euro and oil rose slightly

On the foreign exchange market, the euro rose 0.13% to 1.3168 against the greenback dollar. Side of the oil markets, Brent was stable at 124.26 dollars and WTI rose 0.14% to 106.30 dollars.

Investors will also digest of new business publications. EADS (+6.3% to 28.55 euros) announced an increase of 87% of its annual net profit to 1.033 billion euros and an increase of 7% to 49.13 billion of its turnover.

The distribution group Carrefour (-0.77% to 17.48 euros) announced a net profit down 14.3% for 2011 to € 371 million and a dividend halved to 0.52 euro per share , after a difficult year, marked by three profit warnings.

Air France-KLM (-2.20% to 4.09 euros) registered last year a net loss of 809 million euros and an operating loss of 353 million. The airline, whose sales rose 4.5% to 24.36 billion euros, has set a target to stabilize in 2012 its net debt to 6.5 billion euros.

The U.S. company Simon Property will acquire a 28.7% Klépierre (4.94% to 24.55 euros) with BNP Paribas, which held 51% stake in the French property.

The display group and JCDecaux street furniture (0.84% ​​to 20.90 euros) made a leap from 22.7% to 212.6 million euros in net profit after minority interests in 2011, thanks a booming business. Moreover, according to chief executive, Jean-Francois Decaux, the expected benefit this year of holding the Summer Olympics in London, which should generate six to seven points of additional growth in outdoor advertising.

The chemist Arkema (1.65% to 67.83 euros) has revised upwards its medium-term objectives, relying for now on a 2016 turnover of EUR 8 billion and a gross operating income ( EBITDA) of $ 1.25 billion, showing an early 2012 recovery in activity.

France still has destroyed jobs

On the macroeconomic front, 22,600 jobs have been destroyed in the fourth quarter after the removal of 31,500 jobs in the third quarter, according to figures from INSEE. Moreover, the trade deficit of France increased by almost 300 million euros in January compared to the previous month, reaching 5.324 billion euro, Customs officials said Thursday.

Across the Atlantic, one indicator is on the agenda: the weekly claims for unemployment benefits (1430).