My Opinions

The crisis will not spare the textile and clothing, nor in 2011 nor in 2012, according to latest figures released yesterday by the French Institute of Fashion (IFM). Falling from 11.7% in France in the third quarter, sales of clothing have declined 2.1% in 2011, the fourth consecutive year of decline. Much worse than in 2010 (when sales had dropped by only 0.6%), the trend is not likely to reverse in 2012: against the background of a prolonged economic slowdown, the IFM provides a fallback of 1.8%.

Consumption at half-mast and a surge in raw materials (cotton, wool, oil …) continue to affect the sector. "Rising costs could not be passed in part to the customer on prices because demand is down," said Gildas Minvielle, head of the Economic Observatory of the IFM.Consumption can not grow, says he, "when we have an economy that is growing at quite low. It takes 2 or 3% of overall growth in consumption "to expect to see a" dynamic "re-emerge in this sector, he added. It is far less than 1% growth.

The decline in sales has not yet been felt on the production of the textile industry, stable since 2009. She even posted a sales increase of 8% in late August, thanks to strong exports, supported by Asia. But industrial activity may be overtaken by the crisis, "in case of continued deterioration seen since the summer," warns the IFM.

Consumer bipolar

To resist, distributors sharpen their weapons, and strategic marketing. Much attention is given to new behaviors and consumer demands.

Finding the cheapest car insurance quotes can be an activity that requires a huge amount of time given the number of policies available on the market.

Gran Via, Saturday afternoon, thousands of Madrid overflowing sidewalks to rob the shops in the center. Plaza Santa Ana customers compete tables for a drink and some tapas … According to a recent survey, 68% of Spaniards say they are happy despite the economic depression. The Spanish crisis is a strange crisis. Five million unemployed, a growing half-mast and a debt to the edge of the alert levels, but the fiesta continues. On the surface, anyway.

The costs of the crisis, in fact, are unevenly distributed. On the one hand, those who retain their jobs. Possibly concerned about the situation, their objective situation has changed little since the crisis began, three years ago. On the other, 21.5% of those unemployed, whose number is increasing. Poorly defended, forgotten unions, their suffering is silent.As to the exhaustion of benefits, the first victims of the crisis, however, sinking slowly into exclusion.

Withdrawal into the family

Alejandro lives under the threat of expulsion. He, his brother and his mother, he unwittingly embarked in his galley. 28 years old, he had offered to help a colleague get a home loan. He signed his mother too, and they vouched. Before the crisis, Alejandro had a job as an electrician, he believed that his salary was only threatened, if by chance his friend forgot to pay a bill. When the colleague left no forwarding address, the bank asked his due: 168,000 euros of debt. "Due immediately," says the letter from the bailiff. Now unemployed, Alejandro key 340 euros compensation unemployment. His brother does not work either. Only his mother still affects a salary: 1200 euros.

Is this the end of the action? Thus David Shairp, strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, started his weekly newsletter. An issue that should speak to investors today on the defensive, discouraged by successive storms experienced stock market.

In response, the asset manager first makes common sense. "No asset class is likely to outperform indefinitely, since this would imply a permanent inflow of capital that would eventually not lower the rate of return on investment," notes David Shairp cash advance payday loan. A way of saying that investors will eventually return to the path of the Exchange. The current bad patch will indeed end. But when?

Persistence of large fluctuations in sawtooth

This time, the history market it refers. "The current period is not unprecedented.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced Monday, after a special cabinet, new austerity measures. The amount? Range evolves 6-8000000000 euros. The downward revision of growth in 2012 (1.75% to 1%) means to provide such an effort if France does not want its deficit skid.

Among the tracks mentioned: an increase in corporate tax (IS) for large companies and action on VAT. Specifically, according to reports, companies making more than 500 million euros in turnover should pay an additional tax (eg 10%). The nominal rate of corporation tax will not be found … but the big companies will actually pay more. And perhaps as early as the down payment in December. The state expects 1 billion additional revenue per year.

Unions and senior civil service did not hide in the day Thursday, their fear of participation for the first dive vote simultaneously in all jurisdictions of the state and all hospitals (it was around 64 % in previous elections).

The former pointed to many problems: errors in the delivery of ballots in the electoral lists, complexity of the software used in e-voting Education …

The latter, without denying the difficulties, in advance have found that the federations of civil servants should take some responsibility paydayloans. "Even the great labor leaders" are engaged in the campaign, noted the Minister of Civil Service, Francis Sauvadet.

This fear seemed about to be true, in view of the first digit.Thursday late evening, less than 40% of voters, according to unions, National Education, which alone accounts for almost half of the officials.

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Danone has published a quarterly revenue in line with expectations. At first, in the absence of good surprise, the valuation of Danone can call. The title pays more than 14 times earnings expected for 2012, while the CAC 40 builds about 8.2 times the estimated profit for 2012. "This is justified from the point where Danone is growing higher than the overall economy. The group offers products with high added value for the elderly and babies. It is well positioned in emerging markets, "says one fund manager.

We must also put into perspective the value of Danone with that of Nestlé. The Swiss giant capitalizes 15.6 times the expected result next year. The market welcomed by the superb performance in all segments, including the brilliant success of Nespresso, the subsidiary that specializes in luxury coffee.

Danone is perceived by the market as a growth and not as a "value", not valued due to lack of development prospects online payday advance. The situation of Danone in terms of profitability is satisfactory. Operating margin exceeded 14% after the first half. Better still, it exceeds 20% in Asia.

Possible sale of the water industry

Still, Danone must win the market with new projects. In recent years, Danone has refocused on the markets of healthy nutrition and health. The group is poised to sell its water sector, reports Bloomberg. It is in talks with the Japanese Suntory. The water industry is about 17% of sales of Danone. Growth and profitability are slightly lower than the other branches of the group.Meanwhile, Danone could strengthen its nutrition industry with an acquisition.

In any case, it will not be possible to create value with a takeover bid. When Danone had been rumors of takeover by Pepsi, leaders such as politicians had split from a multitude of arguments, economic patriotism.

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To save Greece from bankruptcy, the banks will have to put their hands in the pocket, and it more than expected. This was recognized by the French Ministry of Finance on Thursday. Creditor institutions of the country in trouble will "probably" erase more debt than originally agreed. European leaders are currently "working" on the issue, said Bercy.

On 21 July, the euro area has decided to ask the banks to accept a debt relief of up to 21% of their funds invested in government debt. This participation is about 50 billion euros, in addition to using the new euro 109 billion. This was torn by Berlin, while Paris was reluctant, wanting to protect its banking system.

Since the announcement, Greece has sunk even further into crisis, with growth forecast and worse than expected public deficit targets not being met. Several diplomatic sources said in recent days that European leaders are now working on discounts of around 30% to 50% on Greek debt. However, a source told Reuters in Brussels, "it is still very open. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now, and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. "

"Window" for banks

To prevent European banks from sinking while erasing part of the slate of Greece, European leaders are studying at the same time the recapitalization of the sector savings account payday advance.Bercy said Thursday that European states will open a "window" for banks would be unable to recapitalize on their own or directly in the markets. France would have wanted to use it for the European Financial Stability, established to help countries in trouble. But Germany is opposed, wanting to limit its use to countries under international infusion (Greece, Portugal, Ireland).

"French banks have no liquidity problems or solvency", held a state Department of Finance. European financial institutions that need to be recapitalized, said Bercy, are "those who failed the stress tests" released in early summer and those who have succeeded just in time. Eight banks have failed and 16 passed the examination of accuracy.Dexia, which is now being dismembered, had passed between the cracks.

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After the weapons budget, the monetary lever is not convincing. Instead of injecting again billions of dollars into the economy as it did previously, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to do everything to lower long rates in the private sector. And, hoping to boost investment and demand for housing loans. Called "Operation Twist", the program has suffered the wrath of the markets, which they consider insufficient to boost growth: Wall Street ended its last session down more than 2% Wednesday, while at the opening on Thursday, unscrewing the CAC 40 2.66%.

Thus, monetary policy in Washington would it last long? Joel Naroff to, of Naroff Economic Advisors, "it is not the level of rates which prevents companies to use and invest more," but "uncertainty about the trajectory of the economy and too low demand growth. "As for households, said he, they "are trying to reduce debt," not to run after new loans. Less terse, analysts of Japanese brokerage Nomura believe that the Fed has eased monetary policy "as it was possible to do so." An admission of impotence, that Ben Bernanke himself had drawn up late August at a conference, the Fed chairman warned that "most of the economic policy measures to support the long-term growth is a outer spring to that of the central bank. "

Problem: If the lever Currency flu, that fiscal stimulus is not better off. In early September, Barack Obama has just announced a battery of measures to support consumption and encourage the hiring in 2012. With in mind, his plan for the use of 447 billion dollars.But nothing says that these measures pass, as the U.S. president is likely to face opposition from Republicans, a majority in the House of Representatives.

Race against time

Since mid-September, they are showing more and more spirited since Barack Obama said on the table a tax program from 1500 billion to the deficit of the country. "Massively increase taxes, to save and build on a ghost reform of social programs, it is not a recipe for economic growth and labor market," said Mitch McConnell rebuked the leader of Republican senators. For Christine Rifflard, an economist at the OFCE and specialist in the U.S., the pressure of the American right wing has to be taken seriously."We saw that she was able to go very far in the months of July and August," she recalls, referring to the long political battle between Republicans and Democrats to raise the ceiling of the debt.

However, it is urgent. On Tuesday, the IMF revised its forecast downward in the United States, anticipating a growth of 1.5% in 2011, against 2.5% previously planned. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the institution, even mentioned a 38% probability of recession across the Atlantic, referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades. To be effective, "the Obama's stimulus plan should be approved without delay," warns Christine Rifflard, who believes that "within two months, it will be too late." "We must first focus on measures the fastest to implement, she said.Since the reduced charges employers and employees, to accelerate quickly hires. "More than ever, the United States are engaged in a difficult race against the clock.

"When we look at we are sorry but when you compare it to console," says the adage. A new proof of this is given with the release today of two studies on corporate social responsibility made by the social rating agency Vigeo.

This company, founded ten years ago by the former secretary general of the CFDT, Nicole Notat, analyzed the performance of 539 European companies listed on non-discrimination in employment.She also compared how these 363 companies had managed the restructuring that had taken during the crisis.

In both cases, France takes the lead of countries that best meet the basic standards set by the International Labour Organization (ILO) concerning freedom of association, prohibition of forced labor and child employment seniors … "This does not mean that French companies have no way to go, but just that they behave better than others," Nicole Notat nuance.

Danone number one

To note the management of corporate restructuring and practice of non-discrimination, the bloodhounds of Vigeo analyzed their managerial systems based on three items: the relevance of political behavior, the consistency of their deployment and effective results.Finally, French firms are better informed and consulted, where social, employee representatives "before and during the restructuring process."

No fewer than four of them are in the top 10 most responsible companies: Danone (ranking first), PSA Peugeot Citroën, Bonduelle and Total. French companies are also those who have best implemented "effective measures to prevent and limit layoffs" and made "steps to mitigate the negative effects of layoffs on employees, including measures to return to work" . Better than their German or Dutch, who monopolize the second and third places on the podium, and Austrian firms, Irish and Greek … that close to the bench.

Issue non-discrimination (access and job retention of the most vulnerable, improving working conditions, training, career …), French companies are doing just as well with no fewer than four of them also in the top 10: PSA Peugeot Citroën again, Rhodia, EDF and TF1. By country, France is ahead of Belgium and the Netherlands, far ahead of Ireland, the UK and Denmark … that appear at the end of ranking. "We knew that the behavior of firms are influenced by national legislation and sectoral affiliations, note Benseddik Fouad, director of Vigeo methods. But this study shows that social responsibility is the leadership position and ability to dialogue that make the difference. "In short, the involvement of the entrepreneur.

Greece reassure his European counterparts. After a 25 minutes telephone conversation with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime Minister of Greece George Papandreou confirmed the "absolute determination" of his government to "take all necessary measures" to implement the decisions European July 21 to leave Athens for its financial difficulties.

For their part, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have put additional pressure on the Greek government. In particular, they expressed to the Prime Minister "of the importance attached to the implementation of strict and effective recovery program of the Greek economy", under which payment of future tranches of aid countries the euro area and the International Monetary Fund.They felt "more than ever essential to fully implement" these decisions "to ensure stability in the euro area."

"The future of Greece in the euro area"

Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel have also taken to silence the market rumors suggesting that Greece could leave the euro area. French President and the Chancellor will say on Wednesday night "convinced that the future of Greece in the euro area." "Despite recent rumors, all parties have stressed that Greece continued to be part of the euro area", also stressed Ilias Mossialos, spokesman for the Greek government.

The news had the immediate effect of boosting the morale of investors in the New York Stock Exchange, first to respond to this highly anticipated conference market.The Dow Jones, who was in the red, jumped 1.49% to 11,272 points to 8:40 p.m., French time.

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