My Opinions

From our correspondent in Brussels The European economy is showing signs of continued weakness. The Brussels Commission anticipates the continuation of a "mild recession" throughout the first half of 2012, in its latest forecast released Friday. She was pushed to the slow recovery, driven by global growth and trade. But the burst also requires the continued recovery: "If we do not undertake new efforts resolutely, growth could remain weak," says Olli Rehn, Commissioner for the Economy. The warning is aimed, among others, in Paris.

The European Commission confirms that it indeed does not believe in the commitment of France to return to a deficit of 3% of GDP: it believes that the path leads instead to 4.2%, but policy change in the meantime . What complicates the situation for Francois Hollande and, perhaps, weaken some of its most expensive promises.

Under the scrutiny of experts, Europe – and particularly the eurozone – is a group exposed to "great disparities", if not serious tensions. In Germany, the first class out of reach of any material, opposes Spain, the fourth economy of the euro, which never ceases to plunge into the red whether the activity, unemployment or public accounts. Within Euroland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Ireland also miss the fiscal trial run. Clearly, the debate austerity-growth is not about to be extinguished. Not to mention the Greek hopeless case …

The fiscal covenant "is not stupid."

Madrid promises to return to 3% deficit next year? The Commission corrects and provides 6.3%. Realistic to Brussels, Conservative Mariano Rajoy could be the first to benefit from a late May deadline pushed back to 2014, even dent the official code of collective discipline. Commissioner Rehn dodged the question. But he raised the possibility of treatment "differentiated" because, he said, the fiscal pact "is not stupid."

For France, the hypothesis of a loosening of the stranglehold of 3% next year, however, is not on the shelves. "We expect that the French authorities specify the measures planned for 2013," Olli Rehn impatient setting out for the first time at the podium a request already heard behind the scenes in Europe, chaired by Sarkozy. The Commission will make its recommendations on May 31 Sanctions against Paris would intervene only after several years of deficits observed.

"We're not there yet," they say in Brussels. But France would have no mitigating circumstance – unlike Spain, Greece or Ireland. In keeping with German and domestic demand, which resists the Hexagon would grow by 0.5% this year and 1.3% in 2013. Unemployment, though rising steadily (10.3% next year), would remain below 11% of euro area average.

In comparison, France's President Holland is not the worst off and she still has to restore its margin accounts.

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1. What is Growth Pact?

The objective of a growth pact is offset, at European level, the negative effects of austerity policies. As defined by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi, it's about finding ways to enhance the productive potential of each country. Clearly, to carry out structural reforms such as to "facilitate the activities of entrepreneurs," because "the creation of new businesses and job creation are critical."

It is less in the spirit of Francis Holland, throw out the treaty negotiated in early 2012 that hard to add to it a component for growth. The new President is especially set up "infrastructure projects", such as the development of broadband networks, funded by the fundraising market at European level ("Eurobonds"). "But we will not revive a policy of public works and begin to build bridges across if it is useless for the business," says his entourage.

The new head of state also wants to increase the funds of the European Investment Bank (EIB), which is already being negotiated in Brussels. This state development bank invests primarily in long-term infrastructure projects. "It would take that money from structural funds, little-used today as states must co-invest and they do not afford to be as-redirected to finance growth," insists on the PS.

A tax on financial transactions at European level, without having a negative impact on activity, would also serve to finance projects.

2. What are the countries that have an interest in negotiating Growth Pact?

Some countries differ on the recipes that can boost activity. But "in principle, it is difficult for a country to say it is against growth, Cinzia Alcidi notes, study center CEPS in Brussels. We must hope. "Portugal, Spain, Greece, but also the Netherlands, that is to say the euro zone countries now in recession, welcome to welcome this breath of oxygen. Germany itself, which begins to see its exports stalling due to the effects of rigor in these countries is changing.

It's not because everyone agrees on the principle that negotiations will take place smoothly. "Although Italy and Spain have recognized the need for measures supporting growth in the short and medium term, both countries will not let this happen without the implementation of structural reforms (labor market reforms and wage moderation) analysis Beffy Pierre-Olivier, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas. The political strategy of François Hollande on the French labor market and the protection of purchasing power could become a sticking point in negotiations. "

3. Germany thinks?

Berlin has traditionally focused on the reforms called "structural". "Germany is committed to a thing, said Cinzia Alcidi: she does not want growth to be boosted at the expense of balanced public finances, through stimulus packages as we saw in 2009." This position is cultural: our neighbor across the Rhine refuses to weaken its economy and its credibility in the debt market by expenditure. Monday, the spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel was categorical: "it is not possible to renegotiate the fiscal pact", which has already been "signed by 25 of the 27 Member States of the European Union" and must allow to strengthen discipline in public finance management.

4. What consequences Growth Pact can be to the French and the Europeans?

"If a European decision is taken at the European Summit of Heads of State and Government on 30 June, we should not expect to see the effect from 1 July!" Warns Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. One can imagine further that the funds are intended primarily for countries with the greatest difficulty, at least in France. Nevertheless, initiatives on the EIB or the Structural Funds "should not have any significant impact on the growth of the European Union", economists consider Societe Generale CIB. They recall that the 350 billion allocated to Structural Funds and the EIB have represented, spread over 5 years, only 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) of the area.

5. The European Central Bank could she participate in the revival?

French socialists would like the ECB plays a greater role to revive the economy. "Right now, the European Central Bank will do nothing special, Judge Clemente de Lucia, economist at BNP Paribas. It could simply continue to conduct an expansionary monetary policy to boost demand. " This will help provide banks with aplomb, allowing them to lend more to households or businesses. Problem, they have no confidence in the economy and therefore do not claim little credit.

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We waited up to 100 billion for the valuation of Facebook at the New York Stock Exchange. It will be less: social network, which could make its debut on the Nasdaq on May 18, intends to sell 180 million shares at a price between 28 and 35 dollars in its IPO. This would allow the community to raise mastodon 5 to $ 6.3 billion. "We have no specific intended use for these recipes," says the site. Thus, the market capitalization of Facebook should approach the $ 80 billion.

Besides these 180 million shares, existing shareholders will sell 157.4 million shares, the proceeds of their return. In total, the sale of more than 337.4 million shares represent an operation to 10 no fax cash loans.63 billion dollars (the average price of 31.50 dollars per share), the largest entry of an enterprise of the net economy.

The estimated valuation for Facebook is the business of the net economy with the highest capitalization at the time of its IPO, largely eclipsing the $ 23 billion that Google was worth when he made his first steps as listed company in 2004. And yet, the figures released by Facebook could be deliberately modest in order to better announce higher and create a buzz.

With AFP

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The AGIRA and auto insurance

Regarding auto insurance, the insured pricing depends in part on their history. To establish reliable statistics and national insurance companies IGAAS members can view and add the file containing the history of the insured.

With this file Official IGAAS allows insurance companies to know the situation prior to a safe future. It allows to identify fraudulent misrepresentation or non-payment.

Note: an insured in the file of AGIRA can access data concerning them. To do so they can go directly to IGAAS, or contact the insurance company having its registration process.

The missions of AGIRA

The AGIRA is responsible for managing the file listing the history of the insured on auto insurance. The association is also responsible for managing the Central Office Pricing (BCT). This body determines pricing may compel an insurance company to insure someone it would normally refused.

Finally, IGAAS is responsible for the Agency's Management Information. The latter is responsible for transmitting to an insured in an accident abroad contact the insurance company liable to the insured.

Reasons for inclusion in AGIRA

Generally, any significant event affecting the auto insurance policy the insured shall be grounds for registration in the file IGAAS. Thus, each claim, whatsoever, is grounds for inclusion in AGIRA (theft, damage, fault accident …).

Termination of auto insurance is also a pattern of registration. This termination can be either the fault of the insured that the insurance company.

The nature of information held by IGAAS

Three main information is held by IGAAS:

-The elements of the auto insurance policy,

-Information about the subscriber's auto insurance,

-Information on the vehicle involved in the auto insurance policy.

Namely: the information concerning termination of an auto insurance policy are kept for two years. In cases where the termination follows a disaster, this information is kept for five years.

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LE FIGARO. – Your father sends you to a company's image. In what mood are you?

Alessandro Benetton. -When writing the new chapter of a book, you must have read the previous calmly. Know that the first line of your chapter begins with the last chapter before. But only you write. The context is difficult. Like when I was given the Benetton Formula 1. I was 25. This may be my destiny to accept difficult missions.

What are your plans to correct the sales of a company that ran out of steam?

It is true that in markets where we are most present, there is more growth. I have both consolidate our presence in Europe since the brand is Italian, but at the same time, go to Korea, Russia, India and Turkey. Grow internationally will be expensive. To achieve this, I need to change the organization, with new people. Among the areas for improvement, we will focus on products and sales. We must enhance the shopping experience. We had done enough. Partly because of the lack of lines, on one side, and an excess of references in each range, on the other. We will strengthen our collections and return to the colors and sweaters that have made us successful. For United Colors of Benetton, You Nguyen, Levi's former home, oversees product design and merchandising, which reinforces the coherence of the store, handing it to the heart of our strategy.

Will you renew your products and stores Benetton, Sisley, but Playlife?

I want to develop around Benetton other brands, each with its history. United Colors of Benetton will remain the flagship brand, but all must move forward so that we improve our results. New store concepts are deployed. For Benetton, the products will remain colorful, accessible and quality. Loyal customers already know that our products can last for years. While garments Sisley remain more sophisticated patterns and colors. In the new stores "icon-stores" of United Colors of Benetton, in major cities worldwide, including Paris, New York, Milan, space is also more segmented between collections or casual city. We installed Giant wool sculptures, titled "Lana Sutra." It amuses me, these ideas from young artists. We offer a shopping experience strong emotions that entails.

Get ready for launch?

Within United Colors of Benetton, I started the "pin-up" last year: this sweater takes the form of the body outline. I put too much on my brand sportswear for young, Playlife, mainly present in Italy. I've reintroduced two of our other brands untapped for years: Killer Loop-and-Jeans West, claw jeans and high cool, 3 horses scratched from the Italian flag. It was one of the first chains of Benetton in the 1970s for denim. Multi-brand, the store also sells gadgets, bags and other decorative objects external marks. It is staged as the loft of a young lover of travel and music. I want to export to Europe and Asia.

Will you continue to make communication campaigns "shocks"?

The Benetton brand awareness remains strong, in 120 countries. We raise large institutional campaigns time to talk about our values ​​twice a year. The next will be in October. The previous Unhate (Non-hatred), which showed political and religious leaders peacefully kissing on the mouth, was seen by 500 million people. To reach a new younger generation who knows us wrong, it was designed for the Web world. This has re-emphasized our research center in communications, La Fabrica, which create 30 young artists each year fellows. Benetton is not a seller of clothes like the others. What matters is that these campaigns have action even if the effects of sales come later.

You get inspired fashion brands like Zara and H & M, who have taken market share in recent years?

Every business has its DNA, I never believed in those who copied a competitor's model for success. But models of business organization of the "fast-fashion" (fashionable high turnover) have stimulated, encouraged to become more aggressive in collection development and in stores. We produce in Tunisia, with own plants in particular, but also in Serbia, so close to us, and this proximity allows us to be as responsive.

Why did he leave Benetton Stock Exchange, where he was present for twenty-six years?

To those who think the stock is useless, I say no! I was a young analyst when Benetton was listed for the first time in Milan. It was a company of 21 years, innovative, fresh in its approach. She wished to guard a big risk: that of being overtaken by galloping growth. The stock market gave us a rigorous management. But since 2008, the financial system is passed through an unexpected crisis. This has led to regulatory measures designed to protect investors, but that induced excessive restrictions for businesses. So far from my mission as an entrepreneur.

Heir model

"Ma, you know me?" Asked his father, Luciano, an advertisement for American Express in its simplest device. Alessandro, prefers him, unveiling … his passions, sports and art, on his blog. Before restoring color to Benetton, this lover of skiing, a graduate of Boston University and an MBA at Harvard began as an analyst at Goldman Sachs. Then created, in 1992, his investment fund: 21 Investimenti. He is now head of a portfolio of over 1.3 billion euros of investments in diversified companies with high potential.

Within the family group, he also chaired between 1988 and 1998, Benetton Formula, in a difficult again. The team won two titles at the world championships for drivers, before being sold to Renault in 2000. Benetton racing cars are on display in the historic factory of the group became a museum showroom near Ponzano Veneto, a small town north of Venise.Alessandro, and amateur kite ski, lives with his wife The ski champion Deborah Compagnoni, and their three children, in a modern and discreet built by the architect Tadao Ando. Benetton is also headquartered in an equally magnificent Villa Minelli sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, restored in the state of the art. This is where Alessandro Benetton has given us an exclusive vision of the future Benetton

.

"All that remains of the old Thomson is a part of the debt," exclaims Frederic Rose, CEO of Technicolor. Inheritance is heavy, but Technicolor also received shares in a beautiful portfolio of 40,000 patents that generates 13% of turnover and 73% of the EBITDA of the group. On the one hand, a debt "excessive", according to Frederic Rose, more than 1 billion euros, which swallows every year 120 million euros of financial expenses. Other, patents essential technologies in audio screens or images that drive essential any industry consumer electronics. "Today, 80% of electronics manufacturers worldwide use patent licenses held by Technicolor," boasts the DG.

Debt and patents. It is around these two faces of Janus that will crystallize the future of the former flagship of French industry of electronics. The activist funds Third Point and Apollo, who are its shareholders first, salivating over the potential jackpot of patents. It is true that these intellectual properties has become the real challenge of the technology world. Last summer, Google acquired Motorola's $ 13 billion to get their hands on patents that will ensure a future in the mobile. Apple, Samsung, Yahoo!, Sony are fighting in court about patents AOL, which has sold 800 patents to Microsoft for $ 1 billion. The stuff of dreams funds activists are upset that Technicolor weighs only 400 million euros in stock! Their idea is simple: he would sell the patent portfolio to pocket a windfall, even after the repayment of debt. The remaining activities of Technicolor? They will find many buyers!

This is the heart of the dispute between the direction of Technicolor to its shareholders. For Frederic Rose, it is not about to dismantle the group. The patent portfolio has value only if it is fed regularly by the group of 400 scientists – including more than half in France – working in industrial activities free business cards. "We file patent enough each year to maintain the portfolio at its level. These are our main activities in the world of images and technologies of houses connected to power this portfolio, "Analysis Frederic Rose. In services industries of the image, Technicolor works with most production studios film and audiovisual. It is the world leader in the industry, and this accounts for half of its turnover, with an EBITDA margin of 13%. This is the basis of activity and the growth drivers of Technicolor.

Close the Angers plant

However, the group is faced with major strategic decisions to be taken on its third business: decoders. If Technicolor wants to preserve the activity of design and software for decoders, it can not continue to produce them in France. Hence decided to close the Angers plant this summer. "Since 2008, I promised to keep the Angers plant for three years. We lose 10 million euros a year on this plant. I had warned the government that lower tariffs on these products would ruin the opportunity to perform in France, "said Frederic Rose. The loss of the supply contract to France Telecom Livebox precipitated the decision to close the factory that employs 350 people. "The president of Thomson Angers talks with four potential buyers for the conversion of the site," says CEO Technicolor.Un serious social issue. But beyond the problem of this plant, Frederic Rose explains that he seeks to consolidate the industry in 2012 with one of the other global players in the sector. In this market, Technicolor competitor for Pace, Sagemcom and Motorola. "The goal is not to lose money in the decoders in 2012."

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Continuation and conclusion on the issue of allowances Lauvergeon. Except cons-order last minute, the former president and CEO of Areva touch Tuesday amounts associated with leaving the nuclear group: one million euros – the equivalent of one year's gross salary excluding bonuses – which 500,000 euros in addition, financial compensation to a non-compete clause. Jean-Cyril Spinetta, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Areva, has asked the company to make the regulation of 1, 5 million in all.

In late March, the Minister of Economy, Baroin, had indicated in writing that "the implementation of the proposals of the supervisory board being the settlement agreement did not call for opposition (his) hand." He belonged to Jean-Cyril Spinetta to apply – or not – this protocol. It ruled.  

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In trouble in Europe, PSA could have done to the Iranian crisis. But the group's activity in this country is at a standstill for several weeks. This disturbance is nothing trivial. Although he appears quiet on the subject, Iran is in fact the second largest group, with 458,000 sales in 2011, about 3.5 million.

This country, in which Peugeot holds nearly 30% market share represents 22% of the volume of the brand. It is even the main market of the Peugeot brand for passenger cars, ahead of France.

While these sales are made by Iran Khodro, the local partner of PSA. The manufacturer assembles on site of Peugeot 405 and 206 including parts manufactured in France, the site of Vesoul. "The Iranian volumes represent only 1.5 to 2% of sales of the automotive division. These disturbances will not have a significant effect, "a spokesman relativizes. This division has reached 42.7 billion in sales last year, Iran contributes an amount of 640 to 850 million euros, which is not negligible. These revenues come from sales of CKD units, spare parts, as well as royalties paid by Iran Khodro. "Although we currently have other more important concerns, Iran is a thorn in the PSA. This is all that activity, which requires few resources, gives off a good return, "says an inside source.

Renault, a different case

Specifically, the manufacturer is paralyzed by financial sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union to try to force Tehran, suspected of wanting to develop atomic weapons, to renounce its nuclear program. Remittances are prohibited between Iranian banks and European banks, the group "can no longer finance its activities to Iran," which led him to "suspend shipments to Iran." Consequently, the site of Vesoul, paralyzed since late February, will again be laid off in April. The workshop that manufactures parts employs 285 people. These parts are mostly to the 206 (approximately 40% of Peugeot's sales in Iran), the supply of 405 taking place almost exclusively in Iran.

This "situation may last," do you recognize internally. This is all that PSA is now allied with General Motors (which owns 7% of its capital), in a context where the U.S. increasing pressure on Iran. "GM has to its investors and customers forcing Peugeot to end its activities in Iran," said Mark Wallace Tuesday, Director of UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran) and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, calling on Congress to investigate the PSA-GM alliance.

Paradoxically, his rival Renault hopes to continue to increase sales of Logan in Iran. Unlike PSA, Renault has a joint venture with local manufacturers Iran Khodro and Saipa. "Sanctions do not apply to the automotive sector," said Renault, which states "to respect the regulations." The Diamond has doubled its sales in 2011 to 93,600 copies.

Consumer confidence has rebounded dramatically and unexpectedly in March. The economic confidence index, released Tuesday by INSEE, has actually won 5 points this month. At 87 points, it finds its level in February 2011 but remains low. "This increase, the third in three months, confirms the end of the downward trend of the index," says Alain Carbonne, France economist of Natixis.

Analysts scrutinizing the fine details of the statistics of the day, they explain this evolution wrong. Certainly, households are less numerous than in February to anticipate a rise in unemployment, reflecting the more moderate than before the number of unemployed in February. The indicator addressing the issue is still well above its long-term average, with 57 points.  

Anticipated change

But it is the consumer confidence about their future standard of living that records a boom in March (12 points to -39 points), pulling all the confidence index. It has, since its lowest level reached last November, a cumulative increase of 24 points. "The presidential election seems to be the only factor behind this increase, the economist Dominique Barbet of BNP Paribas Faxless payday loans. It seems that households expect a policy change for the better. "And the analyst noted that the previous record increase of consumer sentiment had occurred in May 2007, after the presidential election.

Depressed consumption

Renewed consumer confidence could result in a moderate recovery in consumption, after two small declines in December and January. Do not expect a dramatic recovery: "The opportunity to make major purchases (eg car), the most important component of the indicator of consumer sentiment from INSEE, remained stable in March despite the upturn in other sub-indices, notes Alain Carbon. And do not forget that consumption is expected to remain depressed throughout the year because of high unemployment and the expected decline in real wages through inflation amputees. "

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The homes of the French shrink. According to a joint network and broker Meilleursagents.com Empruntis.com, the surface that can be acquired with average incomes fell by 20M2 between 2000 and 2011. Eleven years ago, and could buy only 50 and 70 M2 M2 today.

Soaring property prices is responsible for this situation, which affects all French but not with equal force. For more than income disparities, it is the location of purchasers who will play on their purchasing power. Thus, although holders of the highest average income (4710 euros a month by households according to INSEE), Parisians can not afford that 31 m2, two rooms is a small or a large studio in a city where the m2 reached 8500 euros! In comparison the Rennes and Strasbourg, whose average income is lower by more than 40% (2665 euros a month) than in the capital, however, can lay claim to 62 m2 of housing low rates payday advance. Twice!

Nantes is ranked second among cities in the real purchasing power stronger. With the average income for the city one can acquire 58 m2. In Toulouse and Bordeaux, are accessible 55 m2, 51 m2 in Marseille, Lille and 46 m2 to 38 m2 only Nice.Cependant buying power tends to melt everywhere. In one year, Rennes lost 4 m2, 3 m2 of Lille, Lyon 2m2, m2 and one for Bordeaux and Nantes.  

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