After the weapons budget, the monetary lever is not convincing. Instead of injecting again billions of dollars into the economy as it did previously, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to do everything to lower long rates in the private sector. And, hoping to boost investment and demand for housing loans. Called "Operation Twist", the program has suffered the wrath of the markets, which they consider insufficient to boost growth: Wall Street ended its last session down more than 2% Wednesday, while at the opening on Thursday, unscrewing the CAC 40 2.66%.
Thus, monetary policy in Washington would it last long? Joel Naroff to, of Naroff Economic Advisors, "it is not the level of rates which prevents companies to use and invest more," but "uncertainty about the trajectory of the economy and too low demand growth. "As for households, said he, they "are trying to reduce debt," not to run after new loans. Less terse, analysts of Japanese brokerage Nomura believe that the Fed has eased monetary policy "as it was possible to do so." An admission of impotence, that Ben Bernanke himself had drawn up late August at a conference, the Fed chairman warned that "most of the economic policy measures to support the long-term growth is a outer spring to that of the central bank. "
Problem: If the lever Currency flu, that fiscal stimulus is not better off. In early September, Barack Obama has just announced a battery of measures to support consumption and encourage the hiring in 2012. With in mind, his plan for the use of 447 billion dollars.But nothing says that these measures pass, as the U.S. president is likely to face opposition from Republicans, a majority in the House of Representatives.
Race against time
Since mid-September, they are showing more and more spirited since Barack Obama said on the table a tax program from 1500 billion to the deficit of the country. "Massively increase taxes, to save and build on a ghost reform of social programs, it is not a recipe for economic growth and labor market," said Mitch McConnell rebuked the leader of Republican senators. For Christine Rifflard, an economist at the OFCE and specialist in the U.S., the pressure of the American right wing has to be taken seriously."We saw that she was able to go very far in the months of July and August," she recalls, referring to the long political battle between Republicans and Democrats to raise the ceiling of the debt.
However, it is urgent. On Tuesday, the IMF revised its forecast downward in the United States, anticipating a growth of 1.5% in 2011, against 2.5% previously planned. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the institution, even mentioned a 38% probability of recession across the Atlantic, referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades. To be effective, "the Obama's stimulus plan should be approved without delay," warns Christine Rifflard, who believes that "within two months, it will be too late." "We must first focus on measures the fastest to implement, she said.Since the reduced charges employers and employees, to accelerate quickly hires. "More than ever, the United States are engaged in a difficult race against the clock.