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The crisis will not spare the textile and clothing, nor in 2011 nor in 2012, according to latest figures released yesterday by the French Institute of Fashion (IFM). Falling from 11.7% in France in the third quarter, sales of clothing have declined 2.1% in 2011, the fourth consecutive year of decline. Much worse than in 2010 (when sales had dropped by only 0.6%), the trend is not likely to reverse in 2012: against the background of a prolonged economic slowdown, the IFM provides a fallback of 1.8%.

Consumption at half-mast and a surge in raw materials (cotton, wool, oil …) continue to affect the sector. "Rising costs could not be passed in part to the customer on prices because demand is down," said Gildas Minvielle, head of the Economic Observatory of the IFM.Consumption can not grow, says he, "when we have an economy that is growing at quite low. It takes 2 or 3% of overall growth in consumption "to expect to see a" dynamic "re-emerge in this sector, he added. It is far less than 1% growth.

The decline in sales has not yet been felt on the production of the textile industry, stable since 2009. She even posted a sales increase of 8% in late August, thanks to strong exports, supported by Asia. But industrial activity may be overtaken by the crisis, "in case of continued deterioration seen since the summer," warns the IFM.

Consumer bipolar

To resist, distributors sharpen their weapons, and strategic marketing. Much attention is given to new behaviors and consumer demands.

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Nadine Morano does not hide his satisfaction. The strategy implemented by the Minister of Learning to stick to the commitment of Nicolas Sarkozy – bring 600,000 to 800,000 the number of young alternately by 2015 – appears on track. In October, the number of new contracts signed alternately jumped 7.3% over the same period in 2010 to over 325,000. "This is despite the crisis," said Nadine Morano.

We must recognize that the government has the means to succeed the start: youth outreach campaign before the summer, incentives and administrative simplification passed in late July, doors open at 71 training centers organized in August promotion to employers the new rules into effect in September … with success."It was the battle of youth employment to win and we will continue to put pressure on prefects well they keep on file for the learning needs of businesses," she says.

Nadine Morano is finalizing a regional mapping of places still available in training centers. "It is not normal that there are still 25% of places unfilled in some employment areas," she notes.

Nadine Morano will also continue its work of conviction with regional presidents. The market is simple: for every euro invested in learning the local executive, the government will double the bet.

A winning strategy, because the Minister will sign Tuesday the 19th convention of goals and means with a region. And not just that: the Ile-de-France, which is committed to creating 41,000 training places over five alternating years, through a joint effort of 650 million euros.

Wall Street, which closed on a sharp decline yesterday was unable to rebound in a market still worried by the European public debt. The Dow Jones gained 0.22%. In contrast, the Nasdaq lost 0.60% to 2572.50 points and the S & P 500 shows a symbolic drop of 0.04% to 1215.65 points.

Expectations about the ECB

The new president of the institution, Mario Draghi said on Friday that the first objective of the ECB is price stability. "Our credibility implies the success of our monetary policy is to anchor inflation expectations in the medium and long term," he said. According to traders, however, the ECB would have repurchased Italian debt on the secondary market. According to the German press, it would also quietly imposed a weekly limit of twenty billion euros for its purchases quick cash.

For the Hexagon, the relaxation appears to operate slowly. The spread between 10-year German and French this morning narrowed to 169 basis points against more than 200 yesterday.

Greece has in turn lowered the deficit target for next year, to 5.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), after 9% in 2011. The draft budget was initially a difference between revenue and expenditure of 6.8%.

"The euro area is becoming increasingly moribund," says the broker IG Markets in a note. He also adds that the situation on the interbank market is deteriorating, creating an "ultimate stress" on the stock exchanges.

Is this the end of the action? Thus David Shairp, strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, started his weekly newsletter. An issue that should speak to investors today on the defensive, discouraged by successive storms experienced stock market.

In response, the asset manager first makes common sense. "No asset class is likely to outperform indefinitely, since this would imply a permanent inflow of capital that would eventually not lower the rate of return on investment," notes David Shairp cash advance payday loan. A way of saying that investors will eventually return to the path of the Exchange. The current bad patch will indeed end. But when?

Persistence of large fluctuations in sawtooth

This time, the history market it refers. "The current period is not unprecedented.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced Monday, after a special cabinet, new austerity measures. The amount? Range evolves 6-8000000000 euros. The downward revision of growth in 2012 (1.75% to 1%) means to provide such an effort if France does not want its deficit skid.

Among the tracks mentioned: an increase in corporate tax (IS) for large companies and action on VAT. Specifically, according to reports, companies making more than 500 million euros in turnover should pay an additional tax (eg 10%). The nominal rate of corporation tax will not be found … but the big companies will actually pay more. And perhaps as early as the down payment in December. The state expects 1 billion additional revenue per year.

Following the European Agreement on the debt crisis and in the wake of Wall Street, the Asian financial centers continue to take the colors on Friday. The benchmark index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 1.08% to 9022.85 points, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong 1.89% to 20,061.40 points, the CSI 300 Shanghai 1.44% to 2695.76 points, the Kospi index in Seoul 1.03% to 1941.90 points, the S & P / ASX 200 Index 0.04% 4349.90 Sydney points, the BSE Sensex 30 in Mumbai at 17,762.60 points 2.74% and the FTSE Straits Times of Singapore 1.26% to 2883.42 points.

Investors are optimistic about the effectiveness of European anti-crisis plan, to reduce the debt of Greece and the mobilization of one trillion euros to prevent any contagion to the rest of the euro area.

The euro remains stable against the dollar

In addition, Japanese industrial production fell in September, 4% on a month, the exporting firms are faced with the global economic downturn and the soaring yen, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy one hour payday loan. This is the first decline experienced since March, which recorded an unprecedented drop of 15.5%, again because of the accident at Fukushima. The production was subsequently taken up and had increased every month.

Oil prices retreated slightly on Friday morning in Asia, decision-bénécices after the flight of the day due to good numbers of U.S. growth and the Brussels agreement, analysts said. In electronic trading in the morning, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for December delivery lost 37 cents to 93.59 dollars.Barrel of Brent North Sea crude for December delivery yielded 30 cents to 111.78 dollars. For its part, the euro remains stable against the U.S. dollar, losing only 0.07% to 1.417 dollars.

The bus and its small price could soon impose on domestic journeys. The Department of Transportation would indeed currently working on a bill authorizing domestic routes by mode of transport. "The text is discussed in inter-and we hope to present it in late February, before the end of the parliamentary session," said a spokesman for the ministry.

This would be a small revolution in the world of the French transmission. Indeed, for the moment, only the cabotage is allowed, that is to say the possibility of a bus carrying an international connection to a regular passenger in a French town and the land in another municipality of the Hexagon . This activity is only allowed from the publication of a decree in January.Eurolines is immediately seized it and announced, in February, opening the French territory over 500 trips from region to region, with lower rates on average 50% lower than the train.

SNCF not necessarily opposed

Direct competition with the train is also at stake in this future proposal. Regions that manage the funding lines TER directly involved, could indeed put all their weight to oppose the project. At the congress of the National Federation of passenger transport (FNTV), last week, Thierry Mariani, the transport minister, had ensured that these national lines "should not upset the economic balance of TER lines." The ministry promises today, "the opening line will be made after consultation with the communities and provided they do not jeopardize a public service contract."

For its part, the SNCF does not necessarily see this opening with a jaundiced eye. The railway company, which is already on the bus segment via its branch TER, could also take the opportunity to expand its offer. The boss of this activity, Jean-Pierre Farandou, explained during the same Congress that "the whole rail is not the solution. It should be a complementary service to irrigate the area where the train can not go. "

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The European Central Bank keeps its cool. Faced with signs of recession in the eurozone and while a leading European bank, Dexia, is faltering, the ECB has decided not to ease monetary policy. It has left its main interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. The president of the monetary institution, Jean-Claude Trichet, must explain this decision on Thursday afternoon.

The market demanded a rate cut. "It took into account a lower rate of 0.5", observe the economists Societe Generale. Waiting judged "crazy" by the Luxembourg member of the Governing Council of the ECB, Yves Mersch.

The case for a rate cut was not, however, rule out of hand. Some analysts point to a worrying season looming disaster on the front of the activity in the eurozone."The risks to growth, was talking about last month the President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet, materialize," are economists at BNP Paribas CIB. Furthermore, "economic forecasts of the ECB team behind sluggish growth at year end," they add.

Semi-surprise

The inaction of the ECB, however, is only half surprised. Jean-Claude Trichet, whose every word, in its public statements, is weighed, has not hinted in September that the ECB cut rates. Moreover, "the guardian of the euro zone will wait to act to have more evidence that inflation and growth will slow," noted economist of Nomura. Inflation in the euro zone peaked at 3% in September, a point above the objective of the ECB.

Observers expect more on a rate cut later this year."Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to set the stage Thursday in a future rate cut in the next three months," analysts at Nomura advance.

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The nightmare of 2008 takes shape in the early autumn. In great difficulty, the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia has lost a third of its value on the stock market Tuesday morning amid rumors injection of public money. Since the beginning of August, the European banks, particularly French, are attacked by the markets.

Investors blame them for buying too many Greek debt. Their actions melt like snow in the sun and their Asian or American counterparts do not lend them more than with suspicion. Result, some politicians in the euro area considering state aid for out of the rut. The last time an institution, Lehman Brothers, was abandoned to its fate in 2008, this resulted in the worst financial crisis since 1929.But why, every time they approach the precipice, the banks are they rescued by the States? Decryption.

What is the importance of banks in the economy?

In Europe, the sector produces about 10% of the wealth of the country. But its importance goes well beyond the turnover. Banks play an intermediary role essential. "They manage the savings of those who are most and assign credit to those who request it," says Sofiane Aboura, co-head of investment banking master and market the University of Paris Dauphine.

"The word bank includes a number of activities," said Michel Baroni, professor at ESSEC. "In France in particular, they carry almost all areas of finance: savings management, payment system via current accounts, credit to individuals and businesses, say market activities (trading, etc guaranteed fast personal loans.)..It says the model of universal banking. "Reflecting these activities, the assets of the banking sector in France are more than 3.3 times the gross domestic product (GDP), that is to say, the wealth produced by the country in one year. In Germany the figure is two and a half times GDP, and the Netherlands, more than four times.

Why save them?

"If a major bank collapses, the economy collapses," Assen Scialom * Laurence, Professor of Economics at Paris X Nanterre.All institutions, however, represent the same systemic risk, and do not necessarily require to be saved, says the economist: "What is it? What are its interconnections, therefore the risk of contagion, with the rest of the economy and the rest of the world? Can it be replaced in its business by a competitor? We must ask these questions before acting. "Still, ultimately, a bank, however small it may be, can not die without causing catastrophe if the situation is calm. "Today the market is destabilized and a bankruptcy would not affect normal times can be devastating," warns Laurence Scialom.

How to reduce the bill, in cases of salvage?

"For a state to help a troubled bank is less expensive than the laissez-faire

The former headquarters of Lehman Brothers in New York. Photo Credit: Mark Lennihan / Associated Press

It's already Christmas in the "civet"! The government has made on Friday, a nice gift for tobacconists. Their pay on each pack of cigarettes will increase from 6.5% to 6.9% of the selling price. This increase will begin in January 2012 and will be spread over five years, the duration of the new "future contract" signed between Valérie Pécresse, Minister of Budget and Pascal Montredon, president of the Confederation of tobacconists. This is in addition to various support measures for tobacco shops located near the border and in rural areas, estimated at 320 million euros.

The increase in compensation benefits, it at all tobacco shops alike. Paradoxical, because "the sale of tobacco as aids have allowed your average income increase by 57% between 2002 and 2010," as recalled by Valerie Pécresse to tobacconists, who held their annual conference in Paris Friday."In total, more than 1 billion euros that came with your support and profession, which has also benefited, for many of you, the effects of the reduction in VAT in catering."

"At least 10 cents more per pack"

In early 2003, a sharp rise in prices had collapsed sales and forced the closure of nearly 5,000 retailers. There remains 28,000. But since 2004, the price increase regular, moderate (6% per year since 2009) did not in fact impact on the number of cigarettes sold in tobacconists, to the dismay of supporters of tobacco control and Department of Health. As a result, sales of tobacco outlets rose year after year at the rate of inflation of cigarettes for their benefit as for that of tobacco, and especially of the state, who pocketed 80% of price of a pack, which brings in each year over 10 billion euros payday loan companies.

While the additional gift to tobacconists would have no direct impact on government accounts. In all likelihood, the increase will be offset in compensation not to lower fees charged by Bercy, which closely monitors its accounts, but rather by a decrease in compensation of the tobacco industry, as was the case in the previous contract for the future.

To the extent that tobacco companies have no intention of making less money, they will offset the decline in their pay on each packet by an increase in their prices. "To erase an annual decline of 0.1% of our earnings should be increased by at least 10 cents the price of a package," says one manufacturer. "It's a vicious cycle that will strengthen the cause of the difficulties of cross-border tobacco shops," adds another.

Tobacco companies can increase their prices at the beginning of each quarter.Their next rate adjustment will occur not necessarily next January, to the extent that prices will rise by 6% already on Monday, October 17 or 10, as decided by the government. The pack of Marlboro will then 5.90 to 6.20 euros.

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